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Paphos vs Salzburg 3-3 Score & Prediction Review

Europa League - Season 2026/2027 3rd Qualifying Round (Qualifying)

Robbed

Salzburg drew despite more chances

PaphosPaphos

3–3

SalzburgSalzburg
1.6Chances (xG)2.5

On these chances Paphos would usually take 0.9 points and Salzburg 1.9; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Salzburg.

Paphos +0.1 pts vs chancesSalzburg −0.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Paphos vs Salzburg stats: how the match was played

Europa League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Paphos had clearly more shots on target

Paphos

Salzburg

9

Shots on target

6

2

Big chances

4

4

Corners

2

1

Yellow cards

1

52%

Possession

48%

The match between Paphos and Salzburg ended 3-3. Our AI model predicted an Salzburg win at 44% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Celje – Salzburg prediction & betting tips (Oct 22, 2026).

Paphos vs Salzburg — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Europa League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Salzburg to win

Wrong
Our model 44%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 3,626 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.0% of the time (bookmakers said 46.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 53%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 51%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 5,191 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 70%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Salzburg ahead at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Draw at half-time.

Our model 40%Bookmakers 33%

Our track record

In 1,233 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 35.1% than to our 35–40%.

Paphos Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Paphos 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 69%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 2,712 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Salzburg Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Salzburg 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 57%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 1,616 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 61.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Paphos vs Salzburg 3-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Paphos vs Salzburg. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Europa League - Europe
PaphosPaphos3
SalzburgSalzburg3

Winner

X2 69%

BTTS*

Yes 53%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 60%

Full Time

131%
X25%
244%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT25%75%49%51%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT60%40%82%18%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Paphos36%64%69%31%
Salzburg27%73%57%43%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Paphos89%11%96%4%
Salzburg79%21%92%8%

1st Half

122%
X38%
240%

1st Score

135%
X7%
257%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

32%

X-X

15%

X-2

15%

1-1

14%

X-1

10%

2-X

5%

1-X

4%

1-2

3%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

11.5%

0-1

9.3%

1-2

8.5%

1-0

8.4%

0-0

7.5%

0-2

6.9%

2-1

6.9%

2-2

5.2%

2-0

5.1%

1-3

4.2%

0-3

4.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Celje – Salzburg prediction & betting tips (Oct 22, 2026).

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