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  4. Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha

Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha 1-4 Score & Prediction Review

Europa League - Season 2026/2027 League Stage (Group Stage) (Round 1)

Fair result
Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia

1–4

Sparta PrahaSparta Praha
1.2Chances (xG)2.4

On these chances Ararat-Armenia would usually take 0.8 points and Sparta Praha 2.1; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Sparta Praha.

Ararat-Armenia −0.8 pts vs chancesSparta Praha +0.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha stats: how the match was played

Europa League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Sparta Praha had more than twice the shots on target

Ararat-Armenia

Sparta Praha

2

Shots on target

8

3

Big chances

5

2

Corners

13

3

Yellow cards

0

43%

Possession

57%

The match between Ararat-Armenia and Sparta Praha ended 1-4. Our AI model correctly predicted an Sparta Praha win with 38% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Ararat-Armenia – AZ prediction & betting tips (Oct 22, 2026).

Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Europa League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sparta Praha to win

Correct
Our model 38%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 2,116 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.6% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 66%Bookmakers 64%

Our track record

In 3,986 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Sparta Praha ahead at half-time.

Our model 43%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 2,232 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Ararat-Armenia Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Ararat-Armenia 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 60%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Sparta Praha Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sparta Praha 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Sparta Praha 2+ goals.

Our model 60%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 632 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.7% than to our 55–60%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha 1-4 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Europa League - Europe
Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia1
Sparta PrahaSparta Praha4

Winner

12 76%

BTTS*

Yes 58%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 56%

Full Time

138%
X24%
238%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT21%79%44%56%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT56%44%79%21%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Ararat-Armenia29%71%60%40%
Sparta Praha29%71%60%40%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Ararat-Armenia82%18%93%7%
Sparta Praha82%18%93%7%

1st Half

125%
X43%
232%

1st Score

146%
X6%
248%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

26%

1-1

17%

X-X

16%

X-2

14%

X-1

13%

1-X

5%

2-X

4%

1-2

3%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

11.3%

2-1

8.2%

1-2

8.2%

0-1

7.7%

1-0

7.6%

0-2

5.8%

2-0

5.8%

0-0

5.7%

2-2

5.4%

1-3

4.2%

3-1

4.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Ararat-Armenia – AZ prediction & betting tips (Oct 22, 2026).

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