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Sturm Graz vs Rennes 0-0 Score & Prediction Review

Europa League - Season 2026/2027 League Stage (Group Stage) (Round 1)

Robbed

Rennes drew despite more chances

Sturm GrazSturm Graz

0–0

RennesRennes
1.0Chances (xG)2.1

On these chances Sturm Graz would usually take 0.7 points and Rennes 2.1; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Rennes.

Sturm Graz +0.3 pts vs chancesRennes −1.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Sturm Graz vs Rennes stats: how the match was played

Europa League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Sturm Graz

Rennes

4

Shots on target

5

1

Big chances

2

5

Corners

4

2

Yellow cards

0

38%

Possession

62%

The match between Sturm Graz and Rennes ended 0-0. Our AI model predicted an Rennes win at 43% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sturm Graz – Olympique Marseille prediction & betting tips (Oct 22, 2026).

Sturm Graz vs Rennes — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Europa League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rennes to win

Wrong
Our model 43%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 3,626 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.0% of the time (bookmakers said 46.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 59%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 59%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 63%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Rennes ahead at half-time.

Our model 37%Bookmakers 36%

Our track record

In 1,233 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.1% of the time (bookmakers said 35.1%).

Sturm Graz Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sturm Graz 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.8% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Rennes Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rennes 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Rennes 2+ goals.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 848 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.6% than to our 50–55%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Sturm Graz vs Rennes 0-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Sturm Graz vs Rennes. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Europa League - Europe
Sturm GrazSturm Graz0
RennesRennes0

Winner

X2 67%

BTTS*

Yes 59%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 59%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 53%

Full Time

133%
X24%
243%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT20%80%41%59%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT53%47%77%23%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Sturm Graz31%69%61%39%
Rennes25%75%54%46%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Sturm Graz83%17%93%7%
Rennes78%22%92%8%

1st Half

128%
X37%
235%

1st Score

147%
X5%
248%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

23%

1-1

21%

X-1

13%

X-2

13%

X-X

12%

2-X

6%

1-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

3%

Correct Score

1-1

10.4%

1-2

8.5%

0-1

8.2%

2-1

7.6%

1-0

6.3%

0-2

6.2%

2-2

6.2%

0-0

5.2%

1-3

4.9%

2-0

4.4%

0-3

3.7%

2-3

3.6%

3-1

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sturm Graz – Olympique Marseille prediction & betting tips (Oct 22, 2026).

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