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Celtic vs Ferencváros 1-3 Score & Prediction Review

Europa League - Season 2026/2027 League Stage (Group Stage) (Round 1)

Fair result
CelticCeltic

1–3

FerencvárosFerencváros
1.7Chances (xG)1.4

On these chances Celtic would usually take 1.6 points and Ferencváros 1.2; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Celtic.

Celtic −1.6 pts vs chancesFerencváros +1.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Celtic vs Ferencváros stats: how the match was played

Europa League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Ferencváros had clearly more shots on target

Celtic

Ferencváros

4

Shots on target

6

4

Big chances

1

11

Corners

3

0

Yellow cards

2

62%

Possession

38%

The match between Celtic and Ferencváros ended 1-3. Our AI model predicted a Celtic win at 56% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Ferencváros – Torreense prediction & betting tips (Oct 22, 2026).

Celtic vs Ferencváros — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Europa League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Celtic to win

Wrong
Our model 56%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 1,792 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 5,690 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 60%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,077 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 64%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 2,377 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.7% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Celtic ahead at half-time

Wrong
Our model 43%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 6,650 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Celtic Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Celtic 2+ goals

Wrong
Our model 56%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Ferencváros Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Ferencváros 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 72%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,353 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.8% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Celtic vs Ferencváros 1-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Celtic vs Ferencváros. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Europa League - Europe
CelticCeltic1
FerencvárosFerencváros3

Winner

1 56%

BTTS*

Yes 58%

Correct Score

2-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 60%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 54%

Full Time

156%
X22%
222%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT19%82%40%60%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT54%46%77%23%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Celtic17%83%44%56%
Ferencváros40%60%71%29%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Celtic70%30%88%12%
Ferencváros90%10%97%3%

1st Half

143%
X36%
220%

1st Score

161%
X5%
234%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

33%

X-1

20%

2-2

14%

X-X

12%

X-2

7%

1-X

6%

2-X

4%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

2-1

10.6%

1-1

10.4%

1-0

8.9%

2-0

8.3%

1-2

6.0%

3-0

5.9%

3-1

5.9%

2-2

5.7%

0-1

5.0%

0-0

4.5%

3-2

4.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Ferencváros – Torreense prediction & betting tips (Oct 22, 2026).

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