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  4. Varaždin vs Rijeka

Varaždin vs Rijeka 2-0 Score & Prediction Review

1. HNL - Season 2026/2027 (Round 3)

Fair result
VaraždinVaraždin

2–0

RijekaRijeka
1.8Chances (xG)1.2

On these chances Varaždin would usually take 1.8 points and Rijeka 1.0; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Varaždin.

Varaždin +1.2 pts vs chancesRijeka −1.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Varaždin vs Rijeka stats: how the match was played

1. HNL

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Varaždin

Rijeka

4

Shots on target

3

4

Big chances

0

2

Corners

9

2

Yellow cards

1

39%

Possession

62%

The match between Varaždin and Rijeka ended 2-0. Our AI model predicted an Rijeka win at 45% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Hajduk Split – Varaždin prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Varaždin vs Rijeka — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · 1. HNL

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rijeka to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Varaždin to win.

Our model 45%Bookmakers 34%

Our track record

In 1,064 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.3% than to our 40–45%.

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Yes, both score.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 78%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 48%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Varaždin Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Varaždin 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 76%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 842 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).

Rijeka Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rijeka 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 60%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 1,616 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 61.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Varaždin vs Rijeka 2-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Varaždin vs Rijeka. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
1. HNL - Croatia
VaraždinVaraždin2
RijekaRijeka0

Winner

X2 75%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

1-1 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 68%

Full Time

125%
X30%
245%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT31%69%58%42%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT68%32%88%12%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Varaždin41%59%76%24%
Rijeka26%74%60%40%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Varaždin93%7%98%2%
Rijeka83%17%94%6%

1st Half

120%
X48%
232%

1st Score

136%
X11%
253%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

26%

X-X

20%

X-2

16%

1-1

13%

X-1

10%

2-X

6%

1-X

5%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

13.6%

0-1

12.1%

0-0

10.6%

0-2

8.9%

1-2

8.6%

1-0

8.5%

2-1

6.1%

2-2

4.7%

2-0

4.3%

0-3

4.2%

1-3

3.7%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Hajduk Split – Varaždin prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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