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  4. Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb

Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb 2-2 Score & Prediction Review

1. HNL - Season 2026/2027 (Round 5)

Robbed

Dinamo Zagreb drew despite more chances

Istra 1961Istra 1961

2–2

Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb
0.7Chances (xG)1.9

On these chances Istra 1961 would usually take 0.6 points and Dinamo Zagreb 2.2; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Dinamo Zagreb.

Istra 1961 +0.4 pts vs chancesDinamo Zagreb −1.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb stats: how the match was played

1. HNL

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Istra 1961

Dinamo Zagreb

3

Shots on target

3

2

Big chances

4

4

Corners

8

1

Yellow cards

3

29%

Possession

71%

The match between Istra 1961 and Dinamo Zagreb ended 2-2. Our AI model predicted an Dinamo Zagreb win at 69% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Slaven Koprivnica – Dinamo Zagreb prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · 1. HNL

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Dinamo Zagreb to win

Wrong
Our model 69%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 616 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 70.5% of the time (bookmakers said 70.8%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 64%Bookmakers 65%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 57%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 937 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.1% of the time (bookmakers said 60.1%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Dinamo Zagreb ahead at half-time

Wrong
Our model 50%Bookmakers 51%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Istra 1961 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Istra 1961 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 81%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 395 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.5% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Dinamo Zagreb Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 67%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,280 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
1. HNL - Croatia
Istra 1961Istra 19612
Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb2

Winner

2 69%

BTTS*

Yes 56%

Correct Score

0-2 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 64%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 53%

Full Time

113%
X18%
269%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT17%83%36%64%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT47%53%71%29%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Istra 196152%48%81%19%
Dinamo Zagreb11%89%33%67%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Istra 196195%6%99%1%
Dinamo Zagreb58%42%79%21%

1st Half

115%
X35%
250%

1st Score

127%
X4%
268%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

42%

X-2

17%

X-X

12%

1-1

9%

X-1

6%

2-X

5%

1-X

4%

1-2

4%

2-1

1%

Correct Score

0-2

9.9%

1-2

9.5%

0-1

8.9%

1-1

7.7%

1-3

7.7%

0-3

7.6%

2-2

4.8%

0-0

4.4%

2-3

4.0%

1-0

3.4%

2-1

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Slaven Koprivnica – Dinamo Zagreb prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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