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Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv 1-4 Score & Prediction Review

Ligat ha'Al - Season 2026/2027 (Round 3)

Fair result
Hapoel Be'er ShevaHapoel Be'er Sheva

1–4

Maccabi Tel AvivMaccabi Tel Aviv
0.7Chances (xG)3.7

On these chances Hapoel Be'er Sheva would usually take 0.2 points and Maccabi Tel Aviv 2.8; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Hapoel Be'er Sheva.

Hapoel Be'er Sheva −0.2 pts vs chancesMaccabi Tel Aviv +0.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv stats: how the match was played

Ligat ha'Al

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Maccabi Tel Aviv had more than twice the shots on target

Hapoel Be'er Sheva

Maccabi Tel Aviv

2

Shots on target

14

1

Big chances

7

4

Corners

5

5

Yellow cards

1

1

Red cards

0

43%

Possession

57%

The match between Hapoel Be'er Sheva and Maccabi Tel Aviv ended 1-4. Our AI model predicted a Hapoel Be'er Sheva win at 39% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Hapoel Be'er Sheva – Hapoel Katamon prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Ligat ha'Al

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Hapoel Be'er Sheva to win

Wrong
Our model 39%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 2,107 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.6% of the time (bookmakers said 43.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 64%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,490 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 63%Bookmakers 61%

Our track record

In 3,118 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 59%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 938 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.1% of the time (bookmakers said 60.1%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 40%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 6,717 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Hapoel Be'er Sheva Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Hapoel Be'er Sheva 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Hapoel Be'er Sheva 2+ goals.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 1,026 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.1% than to our 55–60%.

Maccabi Tel Aviv Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Maccabi Tel Aviv 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 55%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 1,614 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 61.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv 1-4 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Ligat ha'Al - Israel
Hapoel Be'er ShevaHapoel Be'er Sheva1
Maccabi Tel AvivMaccabi Tel Aviv4

Winner

12 76%

BTTS*

Yes 64%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 63%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 51%

Full Time

139%
X24%
237%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT17%83%37%63%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT49%51%75%25%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Hapoel Be'er Sheva25%75%55%45%
Maccabi Tel Aviv27%73%55%45%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Hapoel Be'er Sheva79%21%92%8%
Maccabi Tel Aviv79%21%92%8%

1st Half

132%
X40%
228%

1st Score

149%
X5%
246%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

24%

2-2

19%

X-X

15%

X-1

14%

X-2

11%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

3%

Correct Score

1-1

10.0%

1-2

8.3%

2-1

8.1%

2-2

6.9%

1-0

6.5%

0-1

5.7%

2-0

5.3%

0-0

4.8%

1-3

4.7%

3-1

4.5%

0-2

4.4%

2-3

3.7%

3-2

3.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Hapoel Be'er Sheva – Hapoel Katamon prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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