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Fagiano Okayama vs Tokyo Verdy 0-0 Score & Prediction Review

J-League - Season 2026/2027 (Round 3)

Robbed

Fagiano Okayama drew despite more chances

Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama

0–0

Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy
1.5Chances (xG)0.3

On these chances Fagiano Okayama would usually take 2.3 points and Tokyo Verdy 0.4; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Fagiano Okayama.

Fagiano Okayama −1.3 pts vs chancesTokyo Verdy +0.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Fagiano Okayama vs Tokyo Verdy stats: how the match was played

J-League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Fagiano Okayama had more than twice the shots on target

Fagiano Okayama

Tokyo Verdy

3

Shots on target

0

2

Big chances

0

6

Corners

1

1

Yellow cards

2

56%

Possession

44%

The match between Fagiano Okayama and Tokyo Verdy ended 0-0. Our AI model predicted a Fagiano Okayama win at 48% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Fagiano Okayama – Mito Hollyhock prediction & betting tips (Oct 21, 2026).

Fagiano Okayama vs Tokyo Verdy — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · J-League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Fagiano Okayama to win

Wrong
Our model 48%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 81%Bookmakers 81%

Our track record

In 1,741 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.4% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 51%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 1,249 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.1% of the time (bookmakers said 51.8%).

Fagiano Okayama Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Fagiano Okayama 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.8% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Tokyo Verdy Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Tokyo Verdy 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 79%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 2,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Fagiano Okayama vs Tokyo Verdy 0-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Fagiano Okayama vs Tokyo Verdy. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
J-League - Japan
Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama0
Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy0

Winner

1X 76%

BTTS*

No 56%

Correct Score

1-0 15%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 61%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 71%

Full Time

148%
X28%
224%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT35%65%61%39%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT71%29%90%10%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Fagiano Okayama26%74%61%39%
Tokyo Verdy44%56%79%21%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Fagiano Okayama84%16%95%5%
Tokyo Verdy94%6%99%1%

1st Half

131%
X51%
218%

1st Score

156%
X11%
233%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

26%

X-X

23%

X-1

19%

2-2

11%

X-2

9%

1-X

5%

2-X

4%

2-1

2%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-0

14.6%

1-1

12.7%

0-0

11.0%

2-0

9.4%

2-1

9.1%

0-1

9.0%

1-2

5.6%

3-0

4.1%

0-2

4.0%

2-2

3.9%

3-1

3.9%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Fagiano Okayama – Mito Hollyhock prediction & betting tips (Oct 21, 2026).

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