Tenerife vs Almería 1-0 Score & Prediction Review
La Liga 2 - Season 2026/2027 (Round 2)
Tenerife1–0
AlmeríaOn these chances Tenerife would usually take 1.7 points and Almería 1.0; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Tenerife.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Tenerife vs Almería stats: how the match was played
La Liga 2
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Tenerife had more than twice the shots on target
Tenerife
Almería
2
Shots on target
1
2
Big chances
1
5
Corners
7
2
Yellow cards
0
39%
Possession
61%
Tenerife vs Almería — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · La Liga 2
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Almería to win
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Tenerife to win.
Our track record
In 1,528 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.
Our model’s pick
No, not both
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Yes, both score.
Our track record
In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).
Our model’s pick
Tenerife 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,712 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).
Our model’s pick
Almería 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,280 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Tenerife vs Almería 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Tenerife vs Almería. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Tenerife1
Almería0Winner
12 72%
BTTS*
No 52%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 68%
Tenerife1Almería0Winner
12 72%
BTTS*
No 52%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 68%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 32% | 68% | 58% | 42% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 68% | 32% | 89% | 11% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33% | 67% | 68% | 32% |
| 33% | 67% | 68% | 32% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89% | 11% | 97% | 3% |
| 88% | 12% | 97% | 3% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
23%
X-X
19%
2-2
17%
X-1
15%
X-2
12%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
2%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
13.3%
0-1
11.0%
1-0
10.9%
0-0
9.9%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
7.6%
2-0
6.4%
0-2
6.3%
2-2
4.5%
1-3
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score