2. Leagues
  3. La Liga 2
  4. Burgos vs Real Sociedad II

Burgos vs Real Sociedad II 2-2 Score & Prediction Review

La Liga 2 - Season 2026/2027 (Round 3)

Fair result
BurgosBurgos

2–2

Real Sociedad IIReal Sociedad II
1.9Chances (xG)1.6

On these chances Burgos would usually take 1.6 points and Real Sociedad II 1.2; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Burgos.

Burgos −0.6 pts vs chancesReal Sociedad II −0.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Burgos vs Real Sociedad II stats: how the match was played

La Liga 2

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Burgos

Real Sociedad II

4

Shots on target

5

3

Big chances

4

6

Corners

4

1

Yellow cards

2

54%

Possession

46%

The match between Burgos and Real Sociedad II ended 2-2. Our AI model predicted a Burgos win at 50% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. None of the key markets landed for this fixture — these matches help refine the model and improve future accuracy.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Burgos – Sabadell prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Burgos vs Real Sociedad II — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · La Liga 2

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Burgos to win

Wrong
Our model 50%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 54%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 58%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 79%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 48%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Burgos Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Burgos 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 58%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Real Sociedad II Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Real Sociedad II 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 79%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 2,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Burgos vs Real Sociedad II 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Burgos vs Real Sociedad II. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
La Liga 2 - Spain
BurgosBurgos2
Real Sociedad IIReal Sociedad II2

Winner

1 50%

BTTS*

No 54%

Correct Score

1-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 69%

Full Time

150%
X27%
223%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT32%68%58%42%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT69%31%89%11%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Burgos24%76%58%42%
Real Sociedad II44%56%79%21%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Burgos83%17%94%6%
Real Sociedad II94%6%99%1%

1st Half

132%
X48%
221%

1st Score

153%
X10%
237%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

25%

X-X

19%

X-1

18%

2-2

14%

X-2

10%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-0

14.1%

1-1

12.4%

0-0

9.8%

2-0

9.8%

2-1

9.4%

0-1

8.3%

1-2

5.6%

3-0

4.5%

3-1

4.3%

2-2

4.1%

0-2

3.8%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Burgos – Sabadell prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Recommended Partners

Live Football Scores