Almería vs Leganés 3-0 Score & Prediction Review
La Liga 2 - Season 2026/2027 (Round 9)
Almería3–0
LeganésOn these chances Almería would usually take 2.2 points and Leganés 0.5; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Almería.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Almería vs Leganés stats: how the match was played
La Liga 2
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Almería had more than twice the shots on target
Almería
Leganés
8
Shots on target
1
0
Big chances
0
8
Corners
3
2
Yellow cards
5
64%
Possession
36%
Almería vs Leganés — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · La Liga 2
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Almería to win
CorrectOur track record
In 604 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 70.7% of the time (bookmakers said 71.1%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Yes, both score.
Our track record
In 3,103 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,104 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,906 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.9%).
Our model’s pick
Almería ahead at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 1,225 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.1% of the time (bookmakers said 51.8%).
Our model’s pick
Almería 2+ goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,405 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.6% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).
Our model’s pick
Leganés 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 1,493 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.6% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Almería vs Leganés 3-0 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Almería vs Leganés. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Almería3
Leganés0Winner
1 66%
BTTS*
No 51%
Correct Score
1-0 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 54%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 58%
Almería3Leganés0Winner
1 66%
BTTS*
No 51%
Correct Score
1-0 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 54%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 58%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 23% | 77% | 46% | 54% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 58% | 42% | 80% | 20% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14% | 86% | 40% | 60% |
| 52% | 48% | 83% | 17% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 33% | 86% | 14% |
| 96% | 4% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
45%
X-1
20%
X-X
13%
2-2
6%
1-X
4%
X-2
4%
2-X
4%
2-1
3%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
1-0
11.9%
2-0
11.3%
2-1
10.4%
1-1
9.8%
3-0
7.9%
3-1
6.7%
0-0
6.3%
0-1
4.7%
2-2
4.1%
1-2
3.9%
3-2
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Almería vs Leganés — Recent Form
Almería have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 2nd in the table. Leganés have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 11th in the table.
Last 5 matches
AlmeríaLeganésOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
AlmeríaLeganésBoth Teams to Score
AlmeríaLeganésOver/Under 2.5 Goals
AlmeríaLeganésOver/Under 3.5 Goals
AlmeríaLeganésFirst Half Result
AlmeríaLeganésCorrect Score
AlmeríaLeganés