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Stevenage vs Oxford United 1-2 Score & Prediction Review

League One - Season 2026/2027 (Round 2)

Fair result
StevenageStevenage

1–2

Oxford UnitedOxford United
1.4Chances (xG)1.8

On these chances Stevenage would usually take 1.1 points and Oxford United 1.6; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Stevenage.

Stevenage −1.1 pts vs chancesOxford United +1.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Stevenage vs Oxford United stats: how the match was played

League One

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Oxford United had clearly more shots on target

Stevenage

Oxford United

3

Shots on target

5

3

Big chances

1

6

Corners

6

1

Yellow cards

4

45%

Possession

55%

The match between Stevenage and Oxford United ended 1-2. Our AI model predicted a Stevenage win at 47% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Stevenage – Plymouth Argyle prediction & betting tips (Oct 20, 2026).

Stevenage vs Oxford United — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · League One

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Stevenage to win

Wrong
Our model 47%Bookmakers 36%

Our track record

In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 54%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 60%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 80%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 1,741 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.4% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 45%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Stevenage Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Stevenage 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.8% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Oxford United Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Oxford United 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 77%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 2,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Stevenage vs Oxford United 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Stevenage vs Oxford United. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
League One - England
StevenageStevenage1
Oxford UnitedOxford United2

Winner

1X 74%

BTTS*

No 54%

Correct Score

1-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 60%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 70%

Full Time

147%
X28%
226%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT33%67%60%40%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT70%30%90%10%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Stevenage26%74%61%39%
Oxford United42%58%77%23%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Stevenage85%15%95%5%
Oxford United93%7%98%2%

1st Half

136%
X44%
220%

1st Score

155%
X10%
236%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

28%

X-X

18%

X-1

17%

2-2

13%

X-2

9%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-0

14.0%

1-1

13.1%

0-0

9.9%

2-0

9.2%

0-1

9.2%

2-1

9.0%

1-2

6.2%

0-2

4.3%

2-2

4.1%

3-0

4.0%

3-1

3.8%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Stevenage – Plymouth Argyle prediction & betting tips (Oct 20, 2026).

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