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Luton Town vs Stockport County

Luton Town vs Stockport County 2-0 Score & Prediction Review

League One - Season 2026/2027 (Round 4)

Fair result

Luton Town

2–0

Stockport County

1.1Chances (xG)0.8

On these chances Luton Town would usually take 1.6 points and Stockport County 1.1; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Luton Town.

Luton Town +1.4 pts vs chancesStockport County −1.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Luton Town vs Stockport County stats: how the match was played

League One

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Luton Town had more than twice the shots on target

Luton Town

Stockport County

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

38%

Possession

62%

The match between Luton Town and Stockport County ended 2-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Luton Town win with 48% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Luton Town – Barnsley prediction & betting tips (Oct 20, 2026).

Luton Town vs Stockport County — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · League One

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Luton Town to win

Correct

Our model 48%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Yes, both score.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 34%

Our track record

In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 2,855 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 76%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

Our model 42%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Luton Town Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Luton Town 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 58%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Stockport County Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Stockport County 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Stockport County 2+ goals.

Our model 74%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

Too few similar matches in the last 12 months for a track record.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Luton Town vs Stockport County 2-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Luton Town vs Stockport County. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

League One - England

Luton Town2

Stockport County0

Winner

1X 74%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

· FT

League One - England

Luton Town2

Stockport County0

Winner

1X 74%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

Full Time

148%

X27%

226%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	30%	70%	55%	45%	66%	34%	87%	13%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	30%	70%	55%	45%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	66%	34%	87%	13%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	25%	75%	58%	42%	82%	18%	94%	6%
	41%	59%	74%	26%	92%	8%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	25%	75%	58%	42%
	41%	59%	74%	26%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	82%	18%	94%	6%
	92%	8%	98%	2%

1st Half

134%

X42%

225%

1st Score

150%

X9%

241%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

27%

X-X

16%

2-2

16%

X-1

15%

X-2

10%

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

12.8%

1-1

12.1%

2-1

9.2%

0-0

9.0%

2-0

8.8%

0-1

8.1%

1-2

6.2%

2-2

4.6%

3-0

4.3%

3-1

4.3%

0-2

4.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Luton Town – Barnsley prediction & betting tips (Oct 20, 2026).