Once Caldas vs Jaguares de Córdoba 1-1 Score & Prediction Review
Liga BetPlay - Season 2026 (Round 4)
Once Caldas drew despite more chances
Once Caldas1–1
Jaguares de CórdobaOn these chances Once Caldas would usually take 2.3 points and Jaguares de Córdoba 0.5; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Once Caldas.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Once Caldas vs Jaguares de Córdoba stats: how the match was played
Liga BetPlay
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Once Caldas had more than twice the shots on target
Once Caldas
Jaguares de Córdoba
11
Shots on target
2
0
Big chances
1
16
Corners
1
5
Yellow cards
5
69%
Possession
31%
Once Caldas vs Jaguares de Córdoba — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Liga BetPlay
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Once Caldas to win
WrongOur track record
In 2,464 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: No, not both.
Our track record
In 3,109 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Under 2.5 goals.
Our track record
In 2,817 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 4,518 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Once Caldas ahead at half-time.
Our track record
In 2,184 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.4% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Once Caldas 0–1 goals
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Once Caldas 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 1,837 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Jaguares de Córdoba 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,325 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.1%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Once Caldas vs Jaguares de Córdoba 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Once Caldas vs Jaguares de Córdoba. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Once Caldas1
Jaguares de Córdoba1Winner
1 51%
BTTS*
Yes 52%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Once Caldas1Jaguares de Córdoba1Winner
1 51%
BTTS*
Yes 52%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 25% | 75% | 49% | 51% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 63% | 37% | 85% | 15% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21% | 79% | 54% | 46% |
| 38% | 62% | 73% | 27% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79% | 21% | 93% | 7% |
| 91% | 9% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
30%
X-1
18%
X-X
16%
2-2
13%
X-2
11%
1-X
5%
2-X
4%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.3%
1-0
11.2%
2-1
10.4%
2-0
8.4%
0-1
7.5%
1-2
7.2%
0-0
6.4%
3-0
5.3%
3-1
5.2%
2-2
4.4%
3-2
3.2%
0-2
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score