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Boyacá Chicó vs Atlético Nacional 1-4 Score & Prediction Review
Liga BetPlay - Season 2026 (Round 1)
Boyacá Chicó1–4
Atlético NacionalOn these chances Boyacá Chicó would usually take 1.7 points and Atlético Nacional 1.0; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Atlético Nacional.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Boyacá Chicó vs Atlético Nacional stats: how the match was played
Liga BetPlay
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Level on shots on target
Boyacá Chicó
Atlético Nacional
4
Shots on target
5
1
Big chances
1
5
Corners
5
2
Yellow cards
3
37%
Possession
63%
Boyacá Chicó vs Atlético Nacional — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Liga BetPlay
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Atlético Nacional to win
CorrectOur track record
In 1,794 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
WrongOur track record
In 6,453 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.
Our track record
In 801 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 55–60%.
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,650 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Atlético Nacional ahead at half-time.
Our track record
In 541 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.7% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.9% than to our 45–50%.
Our model’s pick
Boyacá Chicó 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 390 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.3% of the time (bookmakers said 80.5%).
Our model’s pick
Atlético Nacional 0–1 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Atlético Nacional 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 841 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.6% than to our 50–55%.
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Boyacá Chicó vs Atlético Nacional 1-4 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Boyacá Chicó vs Atlético Nacional. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Boyacá Chicó1
Atlético Nacional4Winner
2 55%
BTTS*
No 51%
Correct Score
0-1 15%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 56%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 67%
Boyacá Chicó1Atlético Nacional4Winner
2 55%
BTTS*
No 51%
Correct Score
0-1 15%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 56%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 67%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 30% | 70% | 56% | 44% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 67% | 33% | 87% | 13% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45% | 55% | 80% | 20% |
| 20% | 80% | 54% | 46% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96% | 5% | 99% | 1% |
| 80% | 20% | 93% | 7% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
28%
X-2
21%
X-X
17%
1-1
10%
X-1
8%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
4%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
0-1
14.6%
1-1
12.3%
1-2
10.5%
0-2
10.3%
0-0
8.4%
1-0
7.0%
2-1
5.1%
1-3
5.0%
0-3
4.7%
2-2
4.1%
2-0
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Boyacá Chicó vs Atlético Nacional — Recent Form
Atlético Nacional have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 3rd in the table. Boyacá Chicó have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 17th in the table.
Last 5 matches
Atlético NacionalBoyacá ChicóOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Atlético NacionalBoyacá ChicóBoth Teams to Score
Atlético NacionalBoyacá ChicóOver/Under 2.5 Goals
Atlético NacionalBoyacá ChicóOver/Under 3.5 Goals
Atlético NacionalBoyacá ChicóFirst Half Result
Atlético NacionalBoyacá ChicóCorrect Score
Atlético NacionalBoyacá Chicó