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Deportes Tolima vs Junior FC 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Liga BetPlay - Season 2026 (Round 1)

Fair result
Deportes TolimaDeportes Tolima

2–1

Junior FCJunior FC
1.4Chances (xG)1.2

On these chances Deportes Tolima would usually take 1.5 points and Junior FC 1.2; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Deportes Tolima.

Deportes Tolima +1.5 pts vs chancesJunior FC −1.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Deportes Tolima vs Junior FC stats: how the match was played

Liga BetPlay

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Deportes Tolima

Junior FC

4

Shots on target

3

3

Big chances

2

1

Corners

7

1

Yellow cards

3

40%

Possession

60%

The match between Deportes Tolima and Junior FC ended 2-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Deportes Tolima win with 58% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Rionegro Águilas – Deportes Tolima prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Deportes Tolima vs Junior FC — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga BetPlay

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Deportes Tolima to win

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 1,802 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 54%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,191 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 76%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Deportes Tolima ahead at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Draw at half-time.

Our model 42%Bookmakers 33%

Our track record

In 2,232 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Deportes Tolima Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Deportes Tolima 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 50%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 2,827 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

Junior FC Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Junior FC 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 82%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 1,503 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.8% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Deportes Tolima vs Junior FC 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Deportes Tolima vs Junior FC. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga BetPlay - Colombia
Deportes TolimaDeportes Tolima2
Junior FCJunior FC1

Winner

1 58%

BTTS*

No 54%

Correct Score

1-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

Full Time

158%
X24%
218%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT29%71%54%47%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT66%34%86%14%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Deportes Tolima18%82%50%50%
Junior FC48%52%81%19%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Deportes Tolima77%23%92%8%
Junior FC95%5%99%1%

1st Half

142%
X42%
215%

1st Score

161%
X8%
231%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

35%

X-1

20%

X-X

17%

2-2

9%

X-2

7%

1-X

4%

2-X

4%

2-1

3%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-0

14.3%

1-1

11.6%

2-0

11.2%

2-1

10.5%

0-0

7.9%

0-1

6.3%

3-0

6.2%

3-1

5.2%

1-2

4.9%

2-2

4.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Rionegro Águilas – Deportes Tolima prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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