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Rionegro Águilas vs Santa Fe 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Liga BetPlay - Season 2026 (Round 1)

Fair result
Rionegro ÁguilasRionegro Águilas

2–1

Santa FeSanta Fe
2.0Chances (xG)1.5

On these chances Rionegro Águilas would usually take 1.7 points and Santa Fe 1.1; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Rionegro Águilas.

Rionegro Águilas +1.3 pts vs chancesSanta Fe −1.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Rionegro Águilas vs Santa Fe stats: how the match was played

Liga BetPlay

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Rionegro Águilas had clearly more shots on target

Rionegro Águilas

Santa Fe

9

Shots on target

5

2

Big chances

1

2

Corners

1

4

Yellow cards

2

56%

Possession

44%

The match between Rionegro Águilas and Santa Fe ended 2-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Rionegro Águilas win with 41% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Rionegro Águilas – Deportes Tolima prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Rionegro Águilas vs Santa Fe — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga BetPlay

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rionegro Águilas to win

Correct
Our model 41%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 3,626 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.0% of the time (bookmakers said 46.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 54%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 63%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 83%Bookmakers 81%

Our track record

In 1,741 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.4% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 48%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Rionegro Águilas Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rionegro Águilas 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 67%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 2,712 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Santa Fe Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Santa Fe 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 75%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 2,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Rionegro Águilas vs Santa Fe 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Rionegro Águilas vs Santa Fe. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga BetPlay - Colombia
Rionegro ÁguilasRionegro Águilas2
Santa FeSanta Fe1

Winner

1X 71%

BTTS*

No 54%

Correct Score

1-1 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 63%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 73%

Full Time

141%
X31%
229%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT36%64%63%37%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT73%27%92%8%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Rionegro Águilas31%69%67%33%
Santa Fe39%61%75%25%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Rionegro Águilas89%11%97%3%
Santa Fe93%7%98%2%

1st Half

130%
X48%
222%

1st Score

148%
X12%
240%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

22%

X-X

21%

X-1

16%

2-2

14%

X-2

11%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

14.0%

1-0

13.5%

0-0

11.9%

0-1

10.7%

2-1

8.5%

2-0

7.7%

1-2

7.0%

0-2

4.9%

2-2

4.2%

3-0

3.1%

3-1

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Rionegro Águilas – Deportes Tolima prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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