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Independiente Medellín vs Llaneros

Independiente Medellín vs Llaneros 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Liga BetPlay - Season 2026 (Round 8)

Fair result

Independiente Medellín

2–1

Llaneros

0.9Chances (xG)0.5

On these chances Independiente Medellín would usually take 1.7 points and Llaneros 0.9; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Independiente Medellín.

Independiente Medellín +1.3 pts vs chancesLlaneros −0.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Independiente Medellín vs Llaneros stats: how the match was played

Liga BetPlay

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Independiente Medellín had more than twice the shots on target

Independiente Medellín

Llaneros

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

51%

Possession

49%

The match between Independiente Medellín and Llaneros ended 2-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Independiente Medellín win with 55% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Llaneros – Santa Fe prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Independiente Medellín vs Llaneros — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga BetPlay

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Independiente Medellín to win

Correct

Our model 55%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

Our model 60%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 60%Bookmakers 51%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 80%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 1,741 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.4% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Independiente Medellín ahead at half-time.

Our model 46%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 531 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.9% than to our 45–50%.

Independiente Medellín Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Independiente Medellín 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Independiente Medellín 2+ goals.

Our model 56%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 1,027 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.1% than to our 55–60%.

Llaneros Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Llaneros 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 83%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 1,503 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.8% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Independiente Medellín vs Llaneros 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Independiente Medellín vs Llaneros. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Liga BetPlay - Colombia

Independiente Medellín2

Llaneros1

Winner

1 55%

BTTS*

No 60%

Correct Score

1-0 16%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 60%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 70%

· FT

Liga BetPlay - Colombia

Independiente Medellín2

Llaneros1

Winner

1 55%

BTTS*

No 60%

Correct Score

1-0 16%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 60%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 70%

Full Time

155%

X27%

218%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	34%	66%	60%	40%	70%	30%	89%	11%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	34%	66%	60%	40%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	70%	30%	89%	11%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	22%	78%	56%	44%	81%	19%	94%	6%
	50%	50%	83%	17%	95%	5%	99%	1%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	22%	78%	56%	44%
	50%	50%	83%	17%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	81%	19%	94%	6%
	95%	5%	99%	1%

1st Half

140%

X46%

215%

1st Score

160%

X11%

229%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

32%

X-1

21%

X-X

19%

2-2

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

15.7%

2-0

11.8%

1-1

11.8%

0-0

10.8%

2-1

9.6%

0-1

7.5%

3-0

5.5%

1-2

4.5%

3-1

4.3%

2-2

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Llaneros – Santa Fe prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).