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Atlético Nacional vs Junior FC

Atlético Nacional vs Junior FC 3-1 Score & Prediction Review

Liga BetPlay - Season 2026 (Round 3)

Fair result

Atlético Nacional

3–1

Junior FC

2.0Chances (xG)0.9

On these chances Atlético Nacional would usually take 2.1 points and Junior FC 0.7; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Atlético Nacional.

Atlético Nacional +0.9 pts vs chancesJunior FC −0.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Atlético Nacional vs Junior FC stats: how the match was played

Liga BetPlay

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Atlético Nacional had more than twice the shots on target

Atlético Nacional

Junior FC

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

59%

Possession

41%

The match between Atlético Nacional and Junior FC ended 3-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Atlético Nacional win with 56% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Cúcuta Deportivo – Atlético Nacional prediction & betting tips (Oct 20, 2026).

Atlético Nacional vs Junior FC — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga BetPlay

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Atlético Nacional to win

Correct

Our model 56%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 1,799 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.1% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 52%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 6,481 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 52%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 5,162 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 71%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 4,571 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Atlético Nacional ahead at half-time.

Our model 45%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 2,229 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Atlético Nacional Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Atlético Nacional 2+ goals

Correct

Our model 52%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,817 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.2% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

Junior FC Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Junior FC 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 77%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 2,592 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.1% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Atlético Nacional vs Junior FC 3-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Atlético Nacional vs Junior FC. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Liga BetPlay - Colombia

Atlético Nacional3

Junior FC1

Winner

1 56%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 61%

· FT

Liga BetPlay - Colombia

Atlético Nacional3

Junior FC1

Winner

1 56%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 61%

Full Time

156%

X25%

220%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	24%	76%	48%	52%	61%	39%	83%	17%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	24%	76%	48%	52%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	61%	39%	83%	17%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	17%	83%	48%	52%	76%	24%	90%	10%
	43%	57%	77%	23%	93%	7%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	17%	83%	48%	52%
	43%	57%	77%	23%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	76%	24%	90%	10%
	93%	7%	98%	2%

1st Half

138%

X44%

217%

1st Score

160%

X7%

233%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

33%

X-1

21%

X-X

15%

2-2

10%

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

11.9%

1-0

11.6%

2-1

11.2%

2-0

9.9%

0-0

6.6%

0-1

5.8%

3-0

5.5%

3-1

5.4%

1-2

5.3%

2-2

5.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Atlético Nacional vs Junior FC — Recent Form

Atlético Nacional have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 2nd in the table. Junior FC have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 14th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Atlético Nacional

Junior FC

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Atlético Nacional

2/5

Junior FC

2/5

Both Teams to Score

Atlético Nacional

4/5

Junior FC

3/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Atlético Nacional

4/5

Junior FC

3/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Atlético Nacional

3/5

Junior FC

2/5

First Half Result

Atlético Nacional

2/5

Junior FC

3/5

Correct Score

Atlético Nacional

1/5

Junior FC

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Cúcuta Deportivo – Atlético Nacional prediction & betting tips (Oct 20, 2026).