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Alianza Petrolera vs Rionegro Águilas

Alianza Petrolera vs Rionegro Águilas 2-2 Score & Prediction Review

Liga BetPlay - Season 2026 (Round 14)

Robbed

Alianza Petrolera drew despite more chances

Alianza Petrolera

2–2

Rionegro Águilas

2.4Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances Alianza Petrolera would usually take 2.1 points and Rionegro Águilas 0.7; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Rionegro Águilas.

Alianza Petrolera −1.1 pts vs chancesRionegro Águilas +0.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Alianza Petrolera vs Rionegro Águilas stats: how the match was played

Liga BetPlay

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Alianza Petrolera

Rionegro Águilas

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

58%

Possession

42%

The match between Alianza Petrolera and Rionegro Águilas ended 2-2. Our AI model predicted a Alianza Petrolera win at 36% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. None of the key markets landed for this fixture — these matches help refine the model and improve future accuracy.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Once Caldas – Alianza Petrolera prediction & betting tips (Oct 28, 2026).

Alianza Petrolera vs Rionegro Águilas — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga BetPlay

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Alianza Petrolera to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Rionegro Águilas to win.

Our model 36%Bookmakers 33%

Our track record

In 1,519 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 3,101 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 61%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 3,105 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.7%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 80%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 1,704 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.6% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 47%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 4,281 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Alianza Petrolera Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Alianza Petrolera 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 68%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,667 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Rionegro Águilas Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rionegro Águilas 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 70%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 3,367 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Alianza Petrolera vs Rionegro Águilas 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Alianza Petrolera vs Rionegro Águilas. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Liga BetPlay - Colombia

Alianza Petrolera2

Rionegro Águilas2

Winner

12 70%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

1-1 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 60%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 70%

· FT

Liga BetPlay - Colombia

Alianza Petrolera2

Rionegro Águilas2

Winner

12 70%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

1-1 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 60%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 70%

Full Time

136%

X30%

233%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	34%	66%	60%	40%	70%	30%	91%	9%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	34%	66%	60%	40%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	70%	30%	91%	9%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	32%	68%	68%	32%	90%	10%	97%	3%
	35%	65%	70%	30%	90%	10%	97%	3%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	32%	68%	68%	32%
	35%	65%	70%	30%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	90%	10%	97%	3%
	90%	10%	97%	3%

1st Half

129%

X47%

224%

1st Score

144%

X11%

245%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

20%

X-X

20%

2-2

17%

X-1

14%

X-2

13%

2-X

1-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

14.0%

1-0

12.2%

0-1

10.9%

0-0

10.6%

2-1

8.0%

1-2

7.5%

2-0

7.0%

0-2

5.9%

2-2

5.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Alianza Petrolera vs Rionegro Águilas — Recent Form

Alianza Petrolera have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 12th in the table. Rionegro Águilas have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 8th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Alianza Petrolera

Rionegro Águilas

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Rionegro Águilas

2/5

Alianza Petrolera

2/5

Both Teams to Score

Rionegro Águilas

2/5

Alianza Petrolera

1/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rionegro Águilas

3/5

Alianza Petrolera

2/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Rionegro Águilas

4/5

Alianza Petrolera

3/5

First Half Result

Rionegro Águilas

1/5

Alianza Petrolera

2/5

Correct Score

Rionegro Águilas

1/5

Alianza Petrolera

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Once Caldas – Alianza Petrolera prediction & betting tips (Oct 28, 2026).