Flop as favourites
2/9Once Caldas won only 2 of 9 as favourites (league 51%).
Independiente Medellín vs Once Caldas Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Liga BetPlay - Season 2026 (Round 15)
Unlucky
Once Caldas are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
−8points fewer than their chances usually bring in their last 10
83% of teams this far behind their chances got more points in their next 10 games.
Independiente Medellín vs Once Caldas score prediction
Liga BetPlay
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Goal-fest alert2.8 goals expected
2.8 goals in total, a little over the Liga BetPlay average of 2.5.
goals expected
Independiente Medellín1.8Once Caldas1.1Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
Goal-fest alert: we expect at least 2.7 goals, clearly more than usual in this league (8.5% above the average). Since July 2025, these games averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Bore draw alert: we expect 2.3 goals or fewer, clearly less than usual (11% below the average). These games averaged 2.2 goals, and 63% stayed under 2.5.
Bookmakers usually see these coming too, so use the alert to know what kind of game to expect, not as a betting edge.
How we measure →The match Independiente Medellín vs Once Caldas will be played on Sunday, October 18 as part of the 2026 season. This fixture will be played in the Round 15 of the Liga BetPlay, played in Colombia. On this page, you’ll find our detailed football prediction for Independiente Medellín vs Once Caldas, including full-time result (1X2) probabilities, draw chances, and additional betting insights. Our predictions are generated using data-driven models that analyze team form, recent performances, and historical trends to deliver reliable match forecasts.
Independiente Medellín vs Once Caldas — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Independiente Medellín vs Once Caldas. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Independiente Medellín–
Once Caldas–Winner
1X 70%
BTTS*
Yes 50%
Correct Score
1-1 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 56%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 68%
Independiente Medellín–Once Caldas–Winner
1X 70%
BTTS*
Yes 50%
Correct Score
1-1 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 56%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 68%
Full Time
141%
X29%
230%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 30% | 70% | 56% | 44% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 68% | 32% | 89% | 11% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27% | 73% | 63% | 37% |
| 36% | 64% | 72% | 28% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86% | 14% | 96% | 4% |
| 90% | 10% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
132%
X46%
222%
1st Score
152%
X10%
238%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
22%
X-X
20%
X-1
16%
2-2
15%
X-2
12%
1-X
6%
2-X
6%
1-2
2%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
13.8%
1-0
11.5%
0-0
9.5%
2-1
9.3%
0-1
9.1%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
7.4%
2-2
4.8%
0-2
4.5%
3-1
3.6%
3-0
3.2%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Independiente Medellín vs Once Caldas: the stats that stand out
Liga BetPlay
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Once Caldas: flop as favourites · Independiente Medellín: always chasing and leaky
2/9Always chasing
7/10Independiente Medellín conceded first in 7 of their last 10 (league 47%).
Leaky
1/10Independiente Medellín kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 10 (league 27%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Independiente Medellín vs Once Caldas: attack vs defence
Liga BetPlay
How to read it
other Liga BetPlay teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Independiente Medellín: good attack, weak defence (1.54 xG, 1.34 xGA a game)
- Once Caldas: good attack, good defence (1.58 xG, 1.17 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Independiente Medellín vs Once Caldas form and luck check
Liga BetPlay
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Liga BetPlay gamesOnce Caldas are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
- Independiente Medellín−2.7
- Once CaldasWasteful · −8 goals−7.7
Last 5 matches
Independiente MedellínL
D
L
W
D
Once CaldasD
L
L
W
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Independiente Medellín 4th of 20 · Once Caldas 9th of 20
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 20 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Independiente Medellín vs Once Caldas: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Liga BetPlay
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Liga BetPlay gamesBTTS = both teams scoredIndependiente Medellín games go over 2.5 goals more often than the Liga BetPlay average (49%), Once Caldas games less often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 49%
Independiente Medellín7 of 10
Once Caldas3 of 10
BTTSleague 53%
Independiente Medellín6 of 10
Once Caldas6 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 410 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Independiente Medellín vs Once Caldas corners, cards and goal times
Liga BetPlay
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameGoal times close to the Liga BetPlay average
Independiente Medellín
Once Caldas
4.5
Corners won · league 4.5
4.9
3.7
Corners conceded · league 4.5
2.8
3.0
Cards · league 2.9
2.6
2.9
Opponents' cards · league 2.9
3.4
53%
Goals before half-time · league 46%
38%
7%
Goals after 75' · league 22%
25%
57%
Conceded before half-time · league 46%
54%
21%
Conceded after 75' · league 22%
15%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Independiente Medellín1/5
Once Caldas1/5
Both Teams to Score
Independiente Medellín2/5
Once Caldas3/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Independiente Medellín1/5
Once Caldas3/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Independiente Medellín3/5
Once Caldas4/5
First Half Result
Independiente Medellín2/5
Once Caldas2/5
Correct Score
Independiente Medellín0/5
Once Caldas1/5
correct predictionwrong prediction