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Independiente Medellín vs Once Caldas

Independiente Medellín vs Once Caldas 0-2 Score & Prediction Review

Liga BetPlay - Season 2026 (Round 15)

Fair result

Independiente Medellín

0–2

Once Caldas

0.8Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances Independiente Medellín would usually take 1.1 points and Once Caldas 1.6; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Independiente Medellín.

Independiente Medellín −1.1 pts vs chancesOnce Caldas +1.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Independiente Medellín vs Once Caldas stats: how the match was played

Liga BetPlay

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Once Caldas had clearly more shots on target

Independiente Medellín

Once Caldas

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

50%

Possession

50%

The match between Independiente Medellín and Once Caldas ended 0-2. Our AI model predicted a Independiente Medellín win at 39% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Independiente Medellín – Alianza Petrolera prediction & betting tips (Nov 1, 2026).

Independiente Medellín vs Once Caldas — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga BetPlay

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Independiente Medellín to win

Wrong

Our model 39%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 2,083 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.7% of the time (bookmakers said 43.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 50%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 6,469 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 56%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 799 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.3% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 55–60%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 78%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 3,633 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.1% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 48%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 4,267 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Independiente Medellín Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Independiente Medellín 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 64%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 3,454 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Once Caldas Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Once Caldas 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 70%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 3,359 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Independiente Medellín vs Once Caldas 0-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Independiente Medellín vs Once Caldas. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Liga BetPlay - Colombia

Independiente Medellín0

Once Caldas2

Winner

12 71%

BTTS*

Yes 50%

Correct Score

1-1 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 68%

· FT

Liga BetPlay - Colombia

Independiente Medellín0

Once Caldas2

Winner

12 71%

BTTS*

Yes 50%

Correct Score

1-1 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 68%

Full Time

139%

X29%

231%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	31%	69%	56%	44%	68%	32%	89%	11%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	31%	69%	56%	44%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	68%	32%	89%	11%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	29%	71%	64%	36%	87%	13%	96%	4%
	35%	65%	70%	30%	90%	10%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	29%	71%	64%	36%
	35%	65%	70%	30%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	87%	13%	96%	4%
	90%	10%	98%	2%

1st Half

129%

X48%

224%

1st Score

151%

X10%

240%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

20%

X-X

20%

2-2

16%

X-1

15%

X-2

13%

2-X

1-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

13.6%

1-0

11.2%

0-0

9.9%

0-1

9.6%

2-1

9.0%

1-2

7.8%

2-0

7.2%

2-2

4.9%

0-2

4.8%

3-1

3.4%

3-0

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Independiente Medellín vs Once Caldas — Recent Form

Once Caldas have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 8th in the table. Independiente Medellín have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 7th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Once Caldas

Independiente Medellín

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Independiente Medellín

1/5

Once Caldas

1/5

Both Teams to Score

Independiente Medellín

4/5

Once Caldas

1/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Independiente Medellín

4/5

Once Caldas

4/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Independiente Medellín

4/5

Once Caldas

5/5

First Half Result

Independiente Medellín

2/5

Once Caldas

3/5

Correct Score

Independiente Medellín

1/5

Once Caldas

2/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Independiente Medellín – Alianza Petrolera prediction & betting tips (Nov 1, 2026).