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Millonarios vs Once Caldas

Millonarios vs Once Caldas 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Liga BetPlay - Season 2026 (Round 13)

Robbed

Once Caldas drew despite more chances

Millonarios

1–1

Once Caldas

1.1Chances (xG)1.9

On these chances Millonarios would usually take 0.9 points and Once Caldas 1.9; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Millonarios.

Millonarios +0.1 pts vs chancesOnce Caldas −0.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Millonarios vs Once Caldas stats: how the match was played

Liga BetPlay

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Millonarios

Once Caldas

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

47%

Possession

53%

The match between Millonarios and Once Caldas ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Millonarios win at 48% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Once Caldas – Alianza Petrolera prediction & betting tips (Oct 28, 2026).

Millonarios vs Once Caldas — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga BetPlay

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Millonarios to win

Wrong

Our model 48%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 3,499 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.5% of the time (bookmakers said 50.6%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 52%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 6,482 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 53%Bookmakers 51%

Our track record

In 5,148 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 75%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 3,642 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

Our model 46%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 4,281 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Millonarios Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Millonarios 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Millonarios 2+ goals.

Our model 57%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 1,020 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.8% than to our 55–60%.

Once Caldas Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Once Caldas 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 74%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 3,367 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Millonarios vs Once Caldas 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Millonarios vs Once Caldas. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Liga BetPlay - Colombia

Millonarios1

Once Caldas1

Winner

1X 75%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 65%

· FT

Liga BetPlay - Colombia

Millonarios1

Once Caldas1

Winner

1X 75%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 65%

Full Time

148%

X27%

225%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	28%	72%	53%	47%	65%	35%	86%	14%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	28%	72%	53%	47%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	65%	35%	86%	14%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	23%	77%	57%	43%	82%	18%	94%	6%
	40%	60%	74%	26%	91%	9%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	23%	77%	57%	43%
	40%	60%	74%	26%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	82%	18%	94%	6%
	91%	9%	98%	2%

1st Half

138%

X45%

217%

1st Score

161%

X8%

231%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

31%

X-1

18%

X-X

18%

2-2

10%

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

13.0%

1-0

12.2%

2-1

9.8%

2-0

8.8%

0-0

8.1%

0-1

7.6%

1-2

6.1%

2-2

5.0%

3-0

4.3%

3-1

4.2%

0-2

3.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Millonarios vs Once Caldas — Recent Form

Once Caldas have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 9th in the table. Millonarios have won 1, drawn 4 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 5th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Once Caldas

Millonarios

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Millonarios

1/5

Once Caldas

1/5

Both Teams to Score

Millonarios

4/5

Once Caldas

1/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Millonarios

4/5

Once Caldas

4/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Millonarios

3/5

Once Caldas

5/5

First Half Result

Millonarios

4/5

Once Caldas

3/5

Correct Score

Millonarios

3/5

Once Caldas

2/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Once Caldas – Alianza Petrolera prediction & betting tips (Oct 28, 2026).