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Puebla vs Pumas UNAM

Puebla vs Pumas UNAM 1-2 Score & Prediction Review

Liga MX - Season 2026/2027 (Round 15)

Fair result

Puebla

1–2

Pumas UNAM

1.7Chances (xG)1.6

On these chances Puebla would usually take 1.4 points and Pumas UNAM 1.4; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Pumas UNAM.

Puebla −1.4 pts vs chancesPumas UNAM +1.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Puebla vs Pumas UNAM stats: how the match was played

Liga MX

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Puebla

Pumas UNAM

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

53%

Possession

47%

The match between Puebla and Pumas UNAM ended 1-2. Our AI model correctly predicted an Pumas UNAM win with 43% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Pumas UNAM – América prediction & betting tips (Nov 8, 2026).

Puebla vs Pumas UNAM — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga MX

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Pumas UNAM to win

Correct

Our model 43%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 3,641 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.7% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 51%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 6,520 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 2,894 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 75%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 4,604 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.1% of the time (bookmakers said 71.4%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

Our model 45%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 4,299 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.2% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Puebla Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Puebla 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 70%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 1,602 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.8% of the time (bookmakers said 71.9%).

Pumas UNAM Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Pumas UNAM 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Pumas UNAM 2+ goals.

Our model 61%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 376 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.8% than to our 60–65%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Puebla vs Pumas UNAM 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Puebla vs Pumas UNAM. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Liga MX - Mexico

Puebla1

Pumas UNAM2

Winner

X2 70%

BTTS*

Yes 50%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 65%

· FT

Liga MX - Mexico

Puebla1

Pumas UNAM2

Winner

X2 70%

BTTS*

Yes 50%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 65%

Full Time

130%

X27%

243%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	29%	71%	54%	46%	65%	35%	86%	14%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	29%	71%	54%	46%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	65%	35%	86%	14%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	36%	64%	70%	30%	89%	11%	97%	3%
	27%	73%	61%	39%	84%	16%	95%	5%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	36%	64%	70%	30%
	27%	73%	61%	39%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	89%	11%	97%	3%
	84%	16%	95%	5%

1st Half

126%

X45%

229%

1st Score

144%

X8%

248%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

21%

1-1

19%

X-X

17%

X-2

14%

X-1

13%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

12.4%

0-1

11.7%

1-2

8.7%

1-0

8.7%

0-0

8.5%

0-2

7.7%

2-1

6.7%

2-2

5.0%

2-0

4.7%

1-3

4.0%

0-3

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Puebla vs Pumas UNAM — Recent Form

Pumas UNAM have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 9th in the table. Puebla have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 14th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Pumas UNAM

Puebla

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Pumas UNAM

2/5

Puebla

3/5

Both Teams to Score

Pumas UNAM

4/5

Puebla

4/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Pumas UNAM

3/5

Puebla

0/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Pumas UNAM

4/5

Puebla

3/5

First Half Result

Pumas UNAM

3/5

Puebla

3/5

Correct Score

Pumas UNAM

1/5

Puebla

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Pumas UNAM – América prediction & betting tips (Nov 8, 2026).