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Atlas vs Guadalajara 1-2 Score & Prediction Review

Liga MX - Season 2025/2026 (Round 10)

Fair result
AtlasAtlas

1–2

GuadalajaraGuadalajara
0.6Chances (xG)2.0

On these chances Atlas would usually take 0.5 points and Guadalajara 2.3; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Guadalajara.

Atlas −0.5 pts vs chancesGuadalajara +0.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Atlas vs Guadalajara stats: how the match was played

Liga MX

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Atlas

Guadalajara

3

Shots on target

4

0

Big chances

3

2

Corners

7

4

Yellow cards

3

31%

Possession

69%

The match between Atlas and Guadalajara ended 1-2. Our AI model correctly predicted an Guadalajara win with 40% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Monterrey – Guadalajara prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

Atlas vs Guadalajara — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga MX

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Guadalajara to win

Correct
Our model 40%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 2,098 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 59%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 5,693 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.7% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 5,301 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.3% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 66%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 3,955 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.4% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Guadalajara ahead at half-time.

Our model 42%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 2,228 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 37.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Atlas Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Atlas 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 3,455 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Guadalajara Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Guadalajara 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Guadalajara 2+ goals.

Our model 58%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 635 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.6% than to our 55–60%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Atlas vs Guadalajara 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Atlas vs Guadalajara. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga MX - Mexico
AtlasAtlas1
GuadalajaraGuadalajara2

Winner

X2 65%

BTTS*

Yes 59%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 56%

Full Time

135%
X25%
240%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT21%79%44%56%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT56%44%80%20%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Atlas30%70%61%39%
Guadalajara26%74%58%42%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Atlas83%17%94%6%
Guadalajara81%19%93%7%

1st Half

126%
X42%
232%

1st Score

140%
X6%
254%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

26%

1-1

16%

X-X

16%

X-2

15%

X-1

11%

2-X

6%

1-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

11.3%

1-2

8.7%

0-1

8.3%

2-1

7.9%

1-0

7.4%

2-2

6.1%

0-2

6.1%

0-0

5.7%

2-0

5.0%

1-3

4.2%

3-1

3.7%

0-3

3.1%

2-3

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Monterrey – Guadalajara prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

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