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Juárez vs Puebla 0-1 Score & Prediction Review

Liga MX - Season 2026/2027 (Round 1)

Fair result
JuárezJuárez

0–1

PueblaPuebla
1.0Chances (xG)1.5

On these chances Juárez would usually take 1.0 points and Puebla 1.7; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Juárez.

Juárez −1.0 pts vs chancesPuebla +1.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Juárez vs Puebla stats: how the match was played

Liga MX

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Puebla had more than twice the shots on target

Juárez

Puebla

1

Shots on target

5

1

Big chances

3

5

Corners

7

1

Yellow cards

1

0

Red cards

1

65%

Possession

36%

The match between Juárez and Puebla ended 0-1. Our AI model predicted a Juárez win at 51% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Juárez – Atlante prediction & betting tips (Oct 21, 2026).

Juárez vs Puebla — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga MX

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Juárez to win

Wrong
Our model 51%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 55%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 54%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 5,191 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 68%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,986 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Juárez ahead at half-time.

Our model 47%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 531 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.9% than to our 45–50%.

Juárez Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Juárez 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Juárez 2+ goals.

Our model 50%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 1,869 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

Puebla Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Puebla 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 72%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 3,381 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Juárez vs Puebla 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Juárez vs Puebla. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga MX - Mexico
JuárezJuárez0
PueblaPuebla1

Winner

1 51%

BTTS*

Yes 55%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 58%

Full Time

151%
X25%
224%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT23%77%46%54%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT58%42%81%19%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Juárez21%79%50%50%
Puebla40%60%72%28%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Juárez76%24%90%10%
Puebla90%10%97%3%

1st Half

130%
X47%
223%

1st Score

152%
X7%
241%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

23%

X-X

18%

X-1

17%

2-2

15%

X-2

10%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

3%

Correct Score

1-1

11.2%

1-0

10.1%

2-1

9.5%

2-0

8.5%

0-0

6.8%

1-2

6.2%

0-1

6.1%

2-2

5.4%

3-1

5.3%

3-0

4.8%

0-2

3.3%

3-2

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Juárez – Atlante prediction & betting tips (Oct 21, 2026).

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