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Cruz Azul vs Puebla 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Liga MX - Season 2026/2027 (Round 2)

Fair result
Cruz AzulCruz Azul

2–1

PueblaPuebla
2.2Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances Cruz Azul would usually take 2.1 points and Puebla 0.7; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Cruz Azul.

Cruz Azul +0.9 pts vs chancesPuebla −0.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Cruz Azul vs Puebla stats: how the match was played

Liga MX

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Cruz Azul had clearly more shots on target

Cruz Azul

Puebla

7

Shots on target

4

4

Big chances

1

7

Corners

3

2

Yellow cards

3

67%

Possession

33%

The match between Cruz Azul and Puebla ended 2-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Cruz Azul win with 65% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Puebla – Monterrey prediction & betting tips (Oct 22, 2026).

Cruz Azul vs Puebla — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga MX

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cruz Azul to win

Correct
Our model 65%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 616 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 70.5% of the time (bookmakers said 70.8%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 57%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 559 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.8% than to our 55–60%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 2,855 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 73%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cruz Azul ahead at half-time

Wrong
Our model 47%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Cruz Azul Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cruz Azul 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Puebla Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Puebla 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 85%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 85.2% of the time (bookmakers said 85.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Cruz Azul vs Puebla 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Cruz Azul vs Puebla. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga MX - Mexico
Cruz AzulCruz Azul2
PueblaPuebla1

Winner

1 65%

BTTS*

No 57%

Correct Score

1-0 15%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 63%

Full Time

165%
X22%
213%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT28%72%51%49%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT63%37%83%17%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Cruz Azul16%84%44%56%
Puebla57%43%85%15%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Cruz Azul71%29%87%13%
Puebla96%4%99%1%

1st Half

147%
X38%
215%

1st Score

165%
X9%
226%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

41%

X-1

20%

X-X

13%

2-2

7%

X-2

6%

1-X

4%

2-X

4%

2-1

3%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-0

15.0%

2-0

13.0%

2-1

9.1%

0-0

8.9%

1-1

8.8%

3-0

8.1%

3-1

5.4%

0-1

4.3%

2-2

3.5%

1-2

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Puebla – Monterrey prediction & betting tips (Oct 22, 2026).

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