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Necaxa vs Cruz Azul 1-3 Score & Prediction Review

Liga MX - Season 2026/2027 (Round 6)

Fair result
NecaxaNecaxa

1–3

Cruz AzulCruz Azul
1.0Chances (xG)2.3

On these chances Necaxa would usually take 0.7 points and Cruz Azul 2.1; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Cruz Azul.

Necaxa −0.7 pts vs chancesCruz Azul +0.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Necaxa vs Cruz Azul stats: how the match was played

Liga MX

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Cruz Azul had more than twice the shots on target

Necaxa

Cruz Azul

4

Shots on target

8

0

Big chances

3

7

Corners

7

5

Yellow cards

2

45%

Possession

55%

The match between Necaxa and Cruz Azul ended 1-3. Our AI model correctly predicted an Cruz Azul win with 52% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Guadalajara – Necaxa prediction & betting tips (Oct 21, 2026).

Necaxa vs Cruz Azul — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga MX

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cruz Azul to win

Correct
Our model 52%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 55%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 54%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,191 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 69%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,986 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 42%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Necaxa Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Necaxa 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 72%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 1,588 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Cruz Azul Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cruz Azul 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Cruz Azul 2+ goals.

Our model 50%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 848 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.6% than to our 50–55%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Necaxa vs Cruz Azul 1-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Necaxa vs Cruz Azul. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga MX - Mexico
NecaxaNecaxa1
Cruz AzulCruz Azul3

Winner

2 52%

BTTS*

Yes 55%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 59%

Full Time

124%
X24%
252%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT23%77%46%54%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT59%41%82%18%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Necaxa39%61%72%28%
Cruz Azul20%80%50%50%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Necaxa91%9%98%2%
Cruz Azul76%24%91%9%

1st Half

123%
X42%
235%

1st Score

139%
X6%
255%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

29%

X-2

17%

X-X

14%

1-1

13%

X-1

10%

1-X

5%

1-2

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

11.3%

0-1

10.4%

1-2

10.3%

0-2

8.3%

2-1

6.5%

1-0

6.4%

0-0

6.2%

2-2

5.4%

1-3

5.3%

0-3

4.8%

2-0

3.5%

2-3

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Guadalajara – Necaxa prediction & betting tips (Oct 21, 2026).

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