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Tigres UANL vs Necaxa 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Liga MX - Season 2026/2027 (Round 7)

Fair result
Tigres UANLTigres UANL

1–1

NecaxaNecaxa
2.0Chances (xG)1.9

On these chances Tigres UANL would usually take 1.5 points and Necaxa 1.3; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Tigres UANL.

Tigres UANL −0.5 pts vs chancesNecaxa −0.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Tigres UANL vs Necaxa stats: how the match was played

Liga MX

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Tigres UANL had clearly more shots on target

Tigres UANL

Necaxa

6

Shots on target

4

1

Big chances

5

6

Corners

3

3

Yellow cards

2

58%

Possession

42%

The match between Tigres UANL and Necaxa ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Tigres UANL win at 63% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Guadalajara – Necaxa prediction & betting tips (Oct 21, 2026).

Tigres UANL vs Necaxa — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga MX

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Tigres UANL to win

Wrong
Our model 63%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 1,062 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 67.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.4%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 2,855 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 71%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Tigres UANL ahead at half-time

Wrong
Our model 46%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Tigres UANL Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Tigres UANL 2+ goals

Wrong
Our model 55%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 2,827 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

Necaxa Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Necaxa 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 83%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 1,503 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.8% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Tigres UANL vs Necaxa 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Tigres UANL vs Necaxa. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga MX - Mexico
Tigres UANLTigres UANL1
NecaxaNecaxa1

Winner

1 63%

BTTS*

No 55%

Correct Score

1-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 50%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 61%

Full Time

163%
X23%
214%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT27%73%50%50%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT61%39%82%18%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Tigres UANL17%83%45%55%
Necaxa54%46%83%17%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Tigres UANL72%28%88%12%
Necaxa94%6%99%2%

1st Half

146%
X39%
216%

1st Score

164%
X8%
227%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

40%

X-1

20%

X-X

13%

2-2

8%

X-2

6%

1-X

4%

2-1

4%

2-X

4%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-0

14.2%

2-0

12.3%

1-1

9.2%

2-1

9.2%

0-0

8.4%

3-0

7.4%

3-1

5.4%

0-1

4.6%

2-2

3.9%

1-2

3.7%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Guadalajara – Necaxa prediction & betting tips (Oct 21, 2026).

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