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Necaxa vs Puebla 0-1 Score & Prediction Review

Liga MX - Season 2026/2027 (Round 8)

Fair result
NecaxaNecaxa

0–1

PueblaPuebla
1.1Chances (xG)1.0

On these chances Necaxa would usually take 1.4 points and Puebla 1.3; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Necaxa.

Necaxa −1.4 pts vs chancesPuebla +1.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Necaxa vs Puebla stats: how the match was played

Liga MX

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Puebla had more than twice the shots on target

Necaxa

Puebla

2

Shots on target

4

3

Big chances

0

8

Corners

5

1

Yellow cards

3

56%

Possession

44%

The match between Necaxa and Puebla ended 0-1. Our AI model predicted a Necaxa win at 47% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Guadalajara – Necaxa prediction & betting tips (Oct 21, 2026).

Necaxa vs Puebla — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga MX

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Necaxa to win

Wrong
Our model 47%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 62%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 59%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 63%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 44%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Necaxa Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Necaxa 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 50%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 2,827 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

Puebla Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Puebla 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 65%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,280 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Necaxa vs Puebla 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Necaxa vs Puebla. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga MX - Mexico
NecaxaNecaxa0
PueblaPuebla1

Winner

1X 71%

BTTS*

Yes 61%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 59%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 53%

Full Time

147%
X24%
229%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT19%81%41%59%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT53%47%78%22%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Necaxa21%79%50%50%
Puebla33%67%65%35%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Necaxa76%25%90%10%
Puebla87%13%96%4%

1st Half

132%
X44%
224%

1st Score

153%
X5%
242%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

26%

X-1

16%

X-X

15%

2-2

14%

X-2

11%

2-X

6%

1-X

5%

2-1

4%

1-2

3%

Correct Score

1-1

10.8%

2-1

9.4%

1-0

8.0%

1-2

7.5%

2-0

6.8%

2-2

6.4%

0-1

6.1%

3-1

5.3%

0-0

4.9%

0-2

4.0%

3-0

3.9%

3-2

3.6%

1-3

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Guadalajara – Necaxa prediction & betting tips (Oct 21, 2026).

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