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Atlas vs Guadalajara

Atlas vs Guadalajara 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Liga MX - Season 2026/2027 (Round 11)

Fair result

Atlas

1–1

Guadalajara

0.7Chances (xG)1.4

On these chances Atlas would usually take 0.9 points and Guadalajara 1.9; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Guadalajara.

Atlas +0.1 pts vs chancesGuadalajara −0.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Atlas vs Guadalajara stats: how the match was played

Liga MX

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Guadalajara had clearly more shots on target

Atlas

Guadalajara

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

44%

Possession

56%

The match between Atlas and Guadalajara ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted an Guadalajara win at 53% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Guadalajara – Necaxa prediction & betting tips (Oct 21, 2026).

Atlas vs Guadalajara — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga MX

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Guadalajara to win

Wrong

Our model 53%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 50%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 2,855 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 74%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

Our model 42%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Atlas Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Atlas 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 77%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 842 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).

Guadalajara Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Guadalajara 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 53%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 1,014 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.2%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Atlas vs Guadalajara 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Atlas vs Guadalajara. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Liga MX - Mexico

Atlas1

Guadalajara1

Winner

2 53%

BTTS*

Yes 50%

Correct Score

0-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 64%

· FT

Liga MX - Mexico

Atlas1

Guadalajara1

Winner

2 53%

BTTS*

Yes 50%

Correct Score

0-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 64%

Full Time

122%

X25%

253%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	27%	73%	52%	48%	64%	36%	86%	14%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	27%	73%	52%	48%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	64%	36%	86%	14%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	43%	57%	77%	23%	94%	6%	99%	1%
	21%	79%	52%	48%	78%	22%	92%	8%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	43%	57%	77%	23%
	21%	79%	52%	48%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	94%	6%	99%	1%
	78%	22%	92%	8%

1st Half

117%

X42%

241%

1st Score

129%

X8%

263%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

33%

X-2

21%

X-X

14%

1-1

X-1

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

0-1

12.1%

1-1

11.7%

1-2

10.3%

0-2

9.6%

0-0

7.9%

1-0

7.3%

2-1

5.5%

0-3

5.2%

1-3

5.1%

2-2

4.7%

2-0

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Atlas vs Guadalajara — Recent Form

Atlas have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 3rd in the table. Guadalajara have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 4th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Atlas

Guadalajara

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Guadalajara

1/5

Atlas

1/5

Both Teams to Score

Guadalajara

3/5

Atlas

4/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Guadalajara

3/5

Atlas

3/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Guadalajara

4/5

Atlas

3/5

First Half Result

Guadalajara

2/5

Atlas

3/5

Correct Score

Guadalajara

1/5

Atlas

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Guadalajara – Necaxa prediction & betting tips (Oct 21, 2026).