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Auxerre vs Lens 1-3 Score & Prediction Review

Ligue 1 - Season 2022/2023 (Round 38)

Fair result
AuxerreAuxerre

1–3

LensLens
1.8Chances (xG)2.1

On these chances Auxerre would usually take 1.2 points and Lens 1.6; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Lens.

Auxerre −1.2 pts vs chancesLens +1.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Auxerre vs Lens stats: how the match was played

Ligue 1

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Lens had clearly more shots on target

Auxerre

Lens

5

Shots on target

7

3

Big chances

6

5

Corners

5

1

Yellow cards

3

50%

Possession

50%

The match between Auxerre and Lens ended 1-3. Our AI model correctly predicted an Lens win with 56% confidence before kick-off. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Full-Time Result — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Lens – Paris prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Auxerre vs Lens — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Ligue 1

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lens to win

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 1,799 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 3,124 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 56%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 802 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 55–60%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 77%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 3,655 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lens ahead at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Draw at half-time.

Our model 44%Bookmakers 34%

Our track record

In 2,220 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Auxerre Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Auxerre 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 81%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 390 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.0% of the time (bookmakers said 80.4%).

Lens Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lens 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 53%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 1,010 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.3%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Auxerre vs Lens 1-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Auxerre vs Lens. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Ligue 1 - France
AuxerreAuxerre1
LensLens3

Winner

2 56%

BTTS*

No 55%

Correct Score

0-1 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 67%

Full Time

119%
X25%
256%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT30%70%56%44%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT67%33%87%13%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Auxerre48%52%81%19%
Lens21%79%53%47%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Auxerre0%0%0%0%
Lens0%0%0%0%

1st Half

115%
X40%
244%

1st Score

129%
X9%
262%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

38%

X-2

21%

X-X

12%

1-1

9%

X-1

7%

2-X

5%

1-X

4%

1-2

3%

2-1

1%

Correct Score

0-1

14.1%

1-1

11.5%

0-2

11.0%

1-2

9.2%

0-0

8.9%

1-0

7.2%

0-3

6.3%

1-3

5.0%

2-1

4.7%

2-2

3.9%

2-0

3.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Lens – Paris prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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