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Monaco vs Toulouse

Monaco vs Toulouse 1-2 Score & Prediction Review

Ligue 1 - Season 2022/2023 (Round 38)

Fair result

Monaco

1–2

Toulouse

2.0Chances (xG)2.2

On these chances Monaco would usually take 1.3 points and Toulouse 1.5; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Monaco.

Monaco −1.3 pts vs chancesToulouse +1.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Monaco vs Toulouse stats: how the match was played

Ligue 1

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Monaco

Toulouse

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

57%

Possession

43%

The match between Monaco and Toulouse ended 1-2. Our AI model predicted a Monaco win at 49% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Monaco – Lille prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

Monaco vs Toulouse — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Ligue 1

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Monaco to win

Wrong

Our model 49%Bookmakers 69%

Our track record

In 3,479 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.6% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 59%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 5,687 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 58%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 5,306 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 3.5 goals.

Our model 63%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 248 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 47.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 47.1% than to our 60–65%.

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Monaco ahead at half-time.

Our model 40%Bookmakers 31%

Our track record

In 2,219 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Monaco Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Monaco 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Monaco 2+ goals.

Our model 50%Bookmakers 23%

Our track record

In 1,855 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

Toulouse Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Toulouse 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 66%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,274 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Monaco vs Toulouse 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Monaco vs Toulouse. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Ligue 1 - France

Monaco1

Toulouse2

Winner

1X 73%

BTTS*

Yes 59%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 53%

· FT

Ligue 1 - France

Monaco1

Toulouse2

Winner

1X 73%

BTTS*

Yes 59%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 53%

Full Time

149%

X23%

227%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	20%	80%	42%	58%	53%	47%	79%	21%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	20%	80%	42%	58%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	53%	47%	79%	21%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	21%	79%	50%	50%	0%	0%	0%	0%
	35%	65%	66%	34%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	21%	79%	50%	50%
	35%	65%	66%	34%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	0%	0%	0%	0%
	0%	0%	0%	0%

1st Half

134%

X40%

226%

1st Score

152%

X5%

243%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

28%

X-1

18%

2-2

15%

X-X

13%

X-2

11%

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

10.8%

2-1

9.5%

1-0

8.6%

2-0

7.4%

1-2

6.8%

0-1

6.1%

2-2

5.9%

3-1

5.4%

0-0

5.0%

0-2

4.2%

3-0

4.1%

3-2

3.5%

1-3

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Monaco – Lille prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).