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Lorient vs Strasbourg 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Ligue 1 - Season 2022/2023 (Round 38)

Smash-and-grab

Lorient won with less than half the chances

LorientLorient

2–1

StrasbourgStrasbourg
0.5Chances (xG)1.6

On these chances Lorient would usually take 0.6 points and Strasbourg 2.2; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Strasbourg.

Lorient +2.4 pts vs chancesStrasbourg −2.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Lorient vs Strasbourg stats: how the match was played

Ligue 1

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Strasbourg had more than twice the shots on target

Lorient

Strasbourg

3

Shots on target

7

0

Big chances

1

4

Corners

4

1

Yellow cards

1

53%

Possession

47%

The match between Lorient and Strasbourg ended 2-1. Our AI model predicted an Strasbourg win at 38% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Angers SCO – Lorient prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

Lorient vs Strasbourg — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Ligue 1

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Strasbourg to win

Wrong
Our model 38%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 2,100 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.5% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 55%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 6,460 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 51%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,151 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 71%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 4,554 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 43%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 6,658 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Lorient Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lorient 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 64%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 3,456 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Strasbourg Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Strasbourg 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 62%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 2,649 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.3% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Lorient vs Strasbourg 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Lorient vs Strasbourg. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Ligue 1 - France
LorientLorient2
StrasbourgStrasbourg1

Winner

12 73%

BTTS*

Yes 55%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 61%

Full Time

135%
X27%
238%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT25%75%49%51%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT61%39%84%16%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Lorient30%70%64%36%
Strasbourg29%71%62%38%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Lorient0%0%0%0%
Strasbourg0%0%0%0%

1st Half

126%
X43%
231%

1st Score

144%
X7%
250%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

23%

1-1

18%

X-X

18%

X-2

15%

X-1

11%

2-X

6%

1-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.4%

0-1

9.2%

1-0

8.9%

1-2

8.2%

2-1

8.0%

0-0

6.9%

0-2

6.3%

2-0

5.9%

2-2

5.8%

1-3

3.9%

3-1

3.5%

0-3

3.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Angers SCO – Lorient prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

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