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Nice vs Olympique Lyonnais

Nice vs Olympique Lyonnais 3-1 Score & Prediction Review

Ligue 1 - Season 2022/2023 (Round 38)

Fair result

Nice

3–1

Olympique Lyonnais

1.5Chances (xG)1.8

On these chances Nice would usually take 1.2 points and Olympique Lyonnais 1.6; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Nice.

Nice +1.8 pts vs chancesOlympique Lyonnais −1.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Nice vs Olympique Lyonnais stats: how the match was played

Ligue 1

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Nice

Olympique Lyonnais

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

43%

Possession

57%

The match between Nice and Olympique Lyonnais ended 3-1. Our AI model predicted an Olympique Lyonnais win at 38% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Paris Saint Germain – Olympique Lyonnais prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

Nice vs Olympique Lyonnais — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Ligue 1

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Olympique Lyonnais to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Nice to win.

Our model 38%Bookmakers 38%

Our track record

In 1,520 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 55%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 5,688 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 53%Bookmakers 71%

Our track record

In 5,151 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 3.5 goals.

Our model 71%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

Too few similar matches in the last 12 months for a track record.

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 42%Bookmakers 35%

Our track record

In 6,656 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Nice Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Nice 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Nice 2+ goals.

Our model 63%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 385 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.9% than to our 60–65%.

Olympique Lyonnais Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Olympique Lyonnais 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Olympique Lyonnais 2+ goals.

Our model 61%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 358 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.3% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.7% than to our 60–65%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Nice vs Olympique Lyonnais 3-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Nice vs Olympique Lyonnais. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Ligue 1 - France

Nice3

Olympique Lyonnais1

Winner

12 75%

BTTS*

Yes 55%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 61%

· FT

Ligue 1 - France

Nice3

Olympique Lyonnais1

Winner

12 75%

BTTS*

Yes 55%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 61%

Full Time

137%

X25%

238%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	24%	76%	47%	53%	61%	39%	84%	16%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	24%	76%	47%	53%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	61%	39%	84%	16%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	30%	70%	63%	37%	0%	0%	0%	0%
	28%	72%	61%	39%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	30%	70%	63%	37%
	28%	72%	61%	39%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	0%	0%	0%	0%
	0%	0%	0%	0%

1st Half

127%

X42%

231%

1st Score

147%

X6%

247%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

23%

1-1

20%

X-X

15%

X-2

14%

X-1

13%

2-X

1-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

12.0%

0-1

9.3%

1-0

8.7%

1-2

8.5%

2-1

8.3%

0-0

6.5%

0-2

6.4%

2-0

5.8%

2-2

5.7%

1-3

3.8%

3-1

3.6%

0-3

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Paris Saint Germain – Olympique Lyonnais prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).