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Paris Saint Germain vs Clermont

Paris Saint Germain vs Clermont 2-3 Score & Prediction Review

Ligue 1 - Season 2022/2023 (Round 38)

Smash-and-grab

Clermont won with less than half the chances

Paris Saint Germain

2–3

Clermont

1.9Chances (xG)0.9

On these chances Paris Saint Germain would usually take 2.0 points and Clermont 0.7; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Paris Saint Germain.

Paris Saint Germain −2.0 pts vs chancesClermont +2.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Paris Saint Germain vs Clermont stats: how the match was played

Ligue 1

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Paris Saint Germain

Clermont

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

54%

Possession

46%

The match between Paris Saint Germain and Clermont ended 2-3. Our AI model predicted a Paris Saint Germain win at 73% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Paris Saint Germain – Olympique Lyonnais prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

Paris Saint Germain vs Clermont — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Ligue 1

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Paris Saint Germain to win

Wrong

Our model 74%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 323 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 79.3% of the time (bookmakers said 76.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 51%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 6,460 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 62%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 3,090 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 3.5 goals.

Our model 60%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 248 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 47.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 47.1% than to our 60–65%.

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Paris Saint Germain ahead at half-time

Wrong

Our model 58%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 303 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.1% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Paris Saint Germain Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Paris Saint Germain 2+ goals

Correct

Our model 69%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 2,675 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.0% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Clermont Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Clermont 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 86%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 598 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 85.3% of the time (bookmakers said 85.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Paris Saint Germain vs Clermont 2-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Paris Saint Germain vs Clermont. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Ligue 1 - France

Paris Saint Germain2

Clermont3

Winner

1 73%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

2-0 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 62%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 50%

· FT

Ligue 1 - France

Paris Saint Germain2

Clermont3

Winner

1 73%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

2-0 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 62%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 50%

Full Time

173%

X16%

210%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	17%	83%	38%	62%	50%	50%	71%	29%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	17%	83%	38%	62%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	50%	50%	71%	29%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	10%	90%	31%	69%	0%	0%	0%	0%
	58%	42%	86%	14%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	10%	90%	31%	69%
	58%	42%	86%	14%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	0%	0%	0%	0%
	0%	0%	0%	0%

1st Half

158%

X30%

212%

1st Score

170%

X4%

225%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

53%

X-1

18%

X-X

2-1

1-X

X-2

2-2

2-X

1-2

Correct Score

2-0

11.9%

1-0

10.0%

2-1

9.2%

3-0

8.5%

1-1

7.9%

3-1

7.4%

0-0

4.2%

2-2

3.4%

0-1

3.1%

1-2

3.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Paris Saint Germain – Olympique Lyonnais prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).