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Brest vs Rennes 1-2 Score & Prediction Review

Ligue 1 - Season 2022/2023 (Round 38)

Fair result
BrestBrest

1–2

RennesRennes
1.9Chances (xG)1.6

On these chances Brest would usually take 1.6 points and Rennes 1.2; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Rennes.

Brest −1.6 pts vs chancesRennes +1.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Brest vs Rennes stats: how the match was played

Ligue 1

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Brest had clearly more shots on target

Brest

Rennes

5

Shots on target

3

0

Big chances

0

3

Corners

3

3

Yellow cards

4

52%

Possession

48%

The match between Brest and Rennes ended 1-2. Our AI model correctly predicted an Rennes win with 45% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Rennes – Strasbourg prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

Brest vs Rennes — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Ligue 1

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rennes to win

Correct
Our model 45%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 3,602 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,689 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 53%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 5,151 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 70%Bookmakers 64%

Our track record

In 3,948 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Rennes ahead at half-time.

Our model 41%Bookmakers 38%

Our track record

In 2,220 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Brest Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Brest 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 67%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 2,675 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.0% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Rennes Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rennes 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Rennes 2+ goals.

Our model 56%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 635 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.6% than to our 55–60%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Brest vs Rennes 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Brest vs Rennes. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Ligue 1 - France
BrestBrest1
RennesRennes2

Winner

X2 70%

BTTS*

Yes 56%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 60%

Full Time

130%
X25%
245%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT24%76%47%53%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT60%40%83%17%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Brest34%66%67%33%
Rennes24%76%56%44%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Brest0%0%0%0%
Rennes0%0%0%0%

1st Half

121%
X41%
238%

1st Score

137%
X6%
257%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

29%

X-X

16%

X-2

16%

1-1

14%

X-1

10%

2-X

6%

1-X

4%

1-2

3%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

11.8%

0-1

9.7%

1-2

8.9%

1-0

7.4%

0-2

7.4%

2-1

7.4%

0-0

6.5%

2-2

5.6%

2-0

4.6%

1-3

4.5%

0-3

4.0%

3-1

3.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Rennes – Strasbourg prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

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