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Reims vs Montpellier

Reims vs Montpellier 1-3 Score & Prediction Review

Ligue 1 - Season 2022/2023 (Round 38)

Fair result

Reims

1–3

Montpellier

1.3Chances (xG)1.7

On these chances Reims would usually take 1.1 points and Montpellier 1.6; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Reims.

Reims −1.1 pts vs chancesMontpellier +1.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Reims vs Montpellier stats: how the match was played

Ligue 1

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Montpellier had clearly more shots on target

Reims

Montpellier

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

48%

Possession

52%

The match between Reims and Montpellier ended 1-3. Our AI model predicted a Reims win at 53% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

Reims vs Montpellier — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Ligue 1

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Reims to win

Wrong

Our model 53%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 2,472 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.8% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 57%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 5,688 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 56%Bookmakers 71%

Our track record

In 5,306 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 3.5 goals.

Our model 65%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 127 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 50.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 47.4% than to our 65–70%.

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Reims ahead at half-time

Correct

Our model 42%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 6,657 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.6% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Reims Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Reims 2+ goals

Wrong

Our model 53%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,801 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).

Montpellier Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Montpellier 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 72%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 3,358 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Reims vs Montpellier 1-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Reims vs Montpellier. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Ligue 1 - France

Reims1

Montpellier3

Winner

1 53%

BTTS*

Yes 57%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 55%

· FT

Ligue 1 - France

Reims1

Montpellier3

Winner

1 53%

BTTS*

Yes 57%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 55%

Full Time

153%

X24%

223%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	21%	79%	44%	56%	55%	45%	80%	20%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	21%	79%	44%	56%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	55%	45%	80%	20%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	19%	81%	47%	53%	0%	0%	0%	0%
	40%	60%	72%	28%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	19%	81%	47%	53%
	40%	60%	72%	28%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	0%	0%	0%	0%
	0%	0%	0%	0%

1st Half

142%

X39%

219%

1st Score

159%

X5%

236%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

36%

X-1

17%

X-X

14%

2-2

10%

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

10.6%

2-1

9.7%

1-0

9.5%

2-0

9.1%

1-2

6.1%

0-1

5.9%

3-1

5.9%

2-2

5.7%

0-0

5.4%

3-0

4.9%

3-2

3.4%

0-2

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score