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Troyes vs Lille 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Ligue 1 - Season 2022/2023 (Round 38)

Robbed

Lille drew despite more chances

TroyesTroyes

1–1

LilleLille
0.7Chances (xG)1.8

On these chances Troyes would usually take 0.7 points and Lille 2.1; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Lille.

Troyes +0.3 pts vs chancesLille −1.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Troyes vs Lille stats: how the match was played

Ligue 1

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Lille had more than twice the shots on target

Troyes

Lille

3

Shots on target

7

0

Big chances

1

2

Corners

8

0

Yellow cards

4

34%

Possession

66%

The match between Troyes and Lille ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted an Lille win at 66% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Monaco – Lille prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

Troyes vs Lille — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Ligue 1

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lille to win

Wrong
Our model 66%Bookmakers 83%

Our track record

In 618 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 70.6% of the time (bookmakers said 70.8%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 53%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 3,124 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 53%Bookmakers 78%

Our track record

In 5,151 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 3.5 goals.

Our model 67%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 127 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 50.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 47.4% than to our 65–70%.

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lille ahead at half-time

Wrong
Our model 53%Bookmakers 64%

Our track record

In 1,250 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.1% of the time (bookmakers said 51.7%).

Troyes Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Troyes 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 85%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 390 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.0% of the time (bookmakers said 80.4%).

Lille Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lille 2+ goals

Wrong
Our model 59%Bookmakers 85%

Our track record

In 1,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.8% of the time (bookmakers said 60.9%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Troyes vs Lille 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Troyes vs Lille. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Ligue 1 - France
TroyesTroyes1
LilleLille1

Winner

2 66%

BTTS*

No 53%

Correct Score

0-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 57%

Full Time

113%
X21%
266%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT25%75%47%53%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT57%43%79%21%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Troyes56%44%85%15%
Lille15%85%41%59%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Troyes0%0%0%0%
Lille0%0%0%0%

1st Half

112%
X35%
253%

1st Score

120%
X7%
273%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

47%

X-2

22%

X-X

9%

1-1

6%

2-X

5%

X-1

4%

1-X

3%

1-2

3%

2-1

1%

Correct Score

0-1

12.2%

0-2

11.4%

1-1

8.8%

0-3

8.8%

1-2

8.6%

0-0

7.3%

1-3

6.7%

1-0

5.1%

2-2

3.6%

2-1

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Monaco – Lille prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

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