Home
Leagues
Ligue 1
Troyes vs Strasbourg

Troyes vs Strasbourg 2-6 Score & Prediction Review

Ligue 1 - Season 2026/2027 (Round 3)

Fair result

Troyes

2–6

Strasbourg

2.3Chances (xG)2.7

On these chances Troyes would usually take 1.2 points and Strasbourg 1.6; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Strasbourg.

Troyes −1.2 pts vs chancesStrasbourg +1.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Troyes vs Strasbourg stats: how the match was played

Ligue 1

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Strasbourg had more than twice the shots on target

Troyes

Strasbourg

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

42%

Possession

58%

The match between Troyes and Strasbourg ended 2-6. Our AI model predicted a Troyes win at 46% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

Troyes vs Strasbourg — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Ligue 1

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Troyes to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Strasbourg to win.

Our model 46%Bookmakers 34%

Our track record

In 382 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 27.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.7% than to our 45–50%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 60%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 2,490 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 61%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 3,118 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 61%Bookmakers 69%

Our track record

In 2,400 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.9%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 43%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 6,717 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Troyes Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Troyes 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 50%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 2,824 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

Strasbourg Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Strasbourg 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 64%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 2,691 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.1% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Troyes vs Strasbourg 2-6 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Troyes vs Strasbourg. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Ligue 1 - France

Troyes2

Strasbourg6

Winner

1X 71%

BTTS*

Yes 60%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 61%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 51%

· FT

Ligue 1 - France

Troyes2

Strasbourg6

Winner

1X 71%

BTTS*

Yes 60%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 61%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 51%

Full Time

146%

X25%

229%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	19%	81%	39%	61%	51%	49%	76%	24%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	19%	81%	39%	61%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	51%	49%	76%	24%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	22%	78%	50%	50%	75%	25%	89%	11%
	34%	66%	64%	36%	84%	16%	94%	6%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	22%	78%	50%	50%
	34%	66%	64%	36%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	75%	25%	89%	11%
	84%	16%	94%	6%

1st Half

134%

X43%

223%

1st Score

157%

X5%

238%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

26%

X-1

17%

X-X

17%

2-2

15%

X-2

10%

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

10.3%

2-1

9.4%

1-0

7.6%

1-2

7.2%

2-2

6.3%

2-0

6.3%

0-1

5.7%

0-0

5.5%

3-1

5.1%

3-0

3.8%

0-2

3.6%

3-2

3.4%

1-3

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score