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Dijon vs Pau 0-1 Score & Prediction Review

Ligue 2 - Season 2026/2027 (Round 2)

Smash-and-grab

Pau won with less than half the chances

DijonDijon

0–1

PauPau
1.8Chances (xG)0.9

On these chances Dijon would usually take 2.0 points and Pau 0.8; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Dijon.

Dijon −2.0 pts vs chancesPau +2.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Dijon vs Pau stats: how the match was played

Ligue 2

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Dijon had more than twice the shots on target

Dijon

Pau

9

Shots on target

3

1

Big chances

3

6

Corners

2

0

Yellow cards

2

66%

Possession

34%

The match between Dijon and Pau ended 0-1. Our AI model predicted a Dijon win at 56% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Pau – Grenoble Foot 38 prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

Dijon vs Pau — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Ligue 2

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Dijon to win

Wrong
Our model 56%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 1,802 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 56%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Under 2.5 goals.

Our model 60%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 105 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.2% than to our 60–65%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Dijon ahead at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Draw at half-time.

Our model 43%Bookmakers 33%

Our track record

In 2,232 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Dijon Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Dijon 2+ goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Dijon 0–1 goals.

Our model 57%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 1,027 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.1% than to our 55–60%.

Pau Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Pau 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 73%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 3,381 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Dijon vs Pau 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Dijon vs Pau. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Ligue 2 - France
DijonDijon0
PauPau1

Winner

1 56%

BTTS*

Yes 56%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 60%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 51%

Full Time

156%
X23%
221%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT19%81%40%60%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT51%49%74%26%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Dijon17%83%43%57%
Pau43%57%73%27%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Dijon68%32%84%16%
Pau90%10%97%3%

1st Half

143%
X40%
217%

1st Score

163%
X5%
232%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

38%

X-1

17%

X-X

15%

2-2

10%

X-2

6%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-1

10.2%

2-1

9.1%

1-0

8.6%

2-0

8.1%

3-1

5.7%

2-2

5.5%

3-0

5.4%

1-2

5.4%

0-0

5.3%

0-1

4.9%

3-2

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Pau – Grenoble Foot 38 prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

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