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Dunkerque vs Montpellier 0-1 Score & Prediction Review

Ligue 2 - Season 2026/2027 (Round 3)

Fair result
DunkerqueDunkerque

0–1

MontpellierMontpellier
1.2Chances (xG)1.4

On these chances Dunkerque would usually take 1.2 points and Montpellier 1.5; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Dunkerque.

Dunkerque −1.2 pts vs chancesMontpellier +1.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Dunkerque vs Montpellier stats: how the match was played

Ligue 2

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Montpellier had clearly more shots on target

Dunkerque

Montpellier

3

Shots on target

5

1

Big chances

4

5

Corners

7

3

Yellow cards

2

59%

Possession

42%

The match between Dunkerque and Montpellier ended 0-1. Our AI model correctly predicted an Montpellier win with 36% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Rodez – Montpellier prediction & betting tips (Oct 19, 2026).

Dunkerque vs Montpellier — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Ligue 2

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Montpellier to win

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Dunkerque to win.

Our model 36%Bookmakers 31%

Our track record

In 1,528 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 50%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 817 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 55–60%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 76%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 46%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Dunkerque Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Dunkerque 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 67%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 2,712 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Montpellier Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Montpellier 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 66%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,280 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Dunkerque vs Montpellier 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Dunkerque vs Montpellier. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Ligue 2 - France
DunkerqueDunkerque0
MontpellierMontpellier1

Winner

12 71%

BTTS*

Yes 50%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

Full Time

135%
X29%
236%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT30%70%55%45%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT66%34%87%13%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Dunkerque32%68%67%33%
Montpellier32%68%66%34%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Dunkerque88%12%96%4%
Montpellier87%13%96%4%

1st Half

130%
X46%
223%

1st Score

150%
X10%
240%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

21%

X-X

21%

2-2

17%

X-1

14%

X-2

12%

1-X

6%

2-X

5%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

13.1%

1-0

10.3%

0-1

9.9%

0-0

9.6%

1-2

7.8%

2-1

7.7%

0-2

6.1%

2-0

6.0%

2-2

5.0%

1-3

3.4%

3-1

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Rodez – Montpellier prediction & betting tips (Oct 19, 2026).

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