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Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union

Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

Major League Soccer - Season 2026

Smash-and-grab

Cincinnati won with less than half the chances

Cincinnati

1–0

Philadelphia Union

0.6Chances (xG)1.7

On these chances Cincinnati would usually take 0.6 points and Philadelphia Union 2.2; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Cincinnati.

Cincinnati +2.4 pts vs chancesPhiladelphia Union −2.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union stats: how the match was played

Major League Soccer

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Philadelphia Union had more than twice the shots on target

Cincinnati

Philadelphia Union

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

52%

Possession

48%

The match between Cincinnati and Philadelphia Union ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Cincinnati win with 42% confidence before kick-off. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Full-Time Result — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Philadelphia Union – Toronto prediction & betting tips (Nov 7, 2026).

Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Major League Soccer

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cincinnati to win

Correct

Our model 42%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 3,641 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.7% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 69%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 419 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.1% of the time (bookmakers said 65.4%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 69%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 1,186 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 67.9% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 52%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 293 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.3% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

Our model 37%Bookmakers 36%

Our track record

In 1,997 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.6% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

Cincinnati Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cincinnati 2+ goals

Wrong

Our model 51%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 2,828 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).

Philadelphia Union Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Philadelphia Union 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Philadelphia Union 2+ goals.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 848 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.5% than to our 50–55%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Major League Soccer - USA

Cincinnati1

Philadelphia Union0

Winner

1X 65%

BTTS*

Yes 69%

Correct Score

1-1 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 69%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 58%

· FT

Major League Soccer - USA

Cincinnati1

Philadelphia Union0

Winner

1X 65%

BTTS*

Yes 69%

Correct Score

1-1 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 69%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 58%

Full Time

142%

X23%

235%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	13%	87%	31%	69%	42%	58%	68%	32%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	13%	87%	31%	69%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	42%	58%	68%	32%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	22%	78%	49%	51%	73%	27%	88%	12%
	27%	73%	54%	46%	77%	23%	91%	9%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	22%	78%	49%	51%
	27%	73%	54%	46%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	73%	27%	88%	12%
	77%	23%	91%	9%

1st Half

136%

X37%

228%

1st Score

152%

X3%

245%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

27%

2-2

18%

X-1

14%

X-X

11%

X-2

11%

2-X

1-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

9.1%

2-1

8.0%

1-2

7.5%

2-2

7.2%

1-0

5.2%

3-1

5.0%

0-1

4.8%

2-0

4.7%

3-2

4.5%

1-3

4.5%

0-2

4.0%

2-3

4.0%

0-0

3.1%

3-0

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union — Recent Form

Cincinnati have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 7th in the table. Philadelphia Union have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 6th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Cincinnati

Philadelphia Union

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Philadelphia Union

1/5

Cincinnati

3/5

Both Teams to Score

Philadelphia Union

3/5

Cincinnati

2/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Philadelphia Union

3/5

Cincinnati

2/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Philadelphia Union

3/5

Cincinnati

4/5

First Half Result

Philadelphia Union

2/5

Cincinnati

1/5

Correct Score

Philadelphia Union

0/5

Cincinnati

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Philadelphia Union – Toronto prediction & betting tips (Nov 7, 2026).