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New York City vs Chicago Fire 3-1 Score & Prediction Review
Major League Soccer - Season 2026
New York City3–1
Chicago FireOn these chances New York City would usually take 1.2 points and Chicago Fire 1.5; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: New York City.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →New York City vs Chicago Fire stats: how the match was played
Major League Soccer
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Chicago Fire had clearly more shots on target
New York City
Chicago Fire
3
Shots on target
5
3
Big chances
3
1
Corners
2
1
Yellow cards
3
47%
Possession
54%
New York City vs Chicago Fire — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Major League Soccer
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
New York City to win
CorrectOur track record
In 3,629 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.0% of the time (bookmakers said 46.9%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).
Our model’s pick
New York City ahead at half-time
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Draw at half-time.
Our track record
In 1,233 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 35.1% than to our 35–40%.
Our model’s pick
New York City 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,828 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.3% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).
Our model’s pick
Chicago Fire 0–1 goals
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Chicago Fire 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 632 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.7% than to our 55–60%.
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
New York City vs Chicago Fire 3-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for New York City vs Chicago Fire. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
New York City3
Chicago Fire1Winner
1X 64%
BTTS*
Yes 63%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 62%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 51%
New York City3Chicago Fire1Winner
1X 64%
BTTS*
Yes 63%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 62%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 51%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 18% | 82% | 38% | 62% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 51% | 49% | 76% | 24% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25% | 75% | 55% | 45% |
| 28% | 72% | 58% | 42% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79% | 21% | 92% | 8% |
| 81% | 19% | 93% | 7% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
29%
2-2
16%
X-1
15%
X-X
14%
X-2
10%
1-X
6%
2-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
10.4%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
8.1%
1-0
6.9%
2-2
6.6%
0-1
6.2%
2-0
5.5%
0-2
4.8%
3-1
4.5%
0-0
4.4%
1-3
4.2%
3-2
3.5%
3-0
3.3%
2-3
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score