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New York City vs Toronto 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Major League Soccer - Season 2026

Robbed

New York City drew despite more chances

New York CityNew York City

1–1

TorontoToronto
2.3Chances (xG)1.2

On these chances New York City would usually take 2.0 points and Toronto 0.8; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: New York City.

New York City −1.0 pts vs chancesToronto +0.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

New York City vs Toronto stats: how the match was played

Major League Soccer

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

New York City

Toronto

5

Shots on target

5

3

Big chances

1

3

Corners

2

2

Yellow cards

4

49%

Possession

51%

The match between New York City and Toronto ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a New York City win at 55% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: New York City – Atlanta United prediction & betting tips (Oct 28, 2026).

New York City vs Toronto — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Major League Soccer

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

New York City to win

Wrong
Our model 55%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 51%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 50%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 2,855 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 72%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

New York City ahead at half-time

Wrong
Our model 43%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

New York City Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

New York City 2+ goals

Wrong
Our model 50%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 2,827 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

Toronto Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Toronto 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 77%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 2,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

New York City vs Toronto 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for New York City vs Toronto. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Major League Soccer - USA
New York CityNew York City1
TorontoToronto1

Winner

1 55%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

1-0 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 50%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 62%

Full Time

155%
X25%
221%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT26%74%50%50%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT62%38%83%17%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
New York City20%80%50%50%
Toronto44%56%77%23%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
New York City76%24%90%10%
Toronto93%7%98%2%

1st Half

143%
X38%
218%

1st Score

160%
X7%
233%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

35%

X-1

16%

X-X

14%

2-2

11%

X-2

8%

1-X

6%

2-1

4%

2-X

4%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-0

11.9%

1-1

11.3%

2-0

9.9%

2-1

9.6%

0-0

7.4%

0-1

6.4%

3-0

5.6%

3-1

5.4%

1-2

5.4%

2-2

4.7%

0-2

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: New York City – Atlanta United prediction & betting tips (Oct 28, 2026).

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