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Cincinnati vs New York City 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Major League Soccer - Season 2026

Fair result
CincinnatiCincinnati

2–1

New York CityNew York City
1.6Chances (xG)1.9

On these chances Cincinnati would usually take 1.2 points and New York City 1.6; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Cincinnati.

Cincinnati +1.8 pts vs chancesNew York City −1.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Cincinnati vs New York City stats: how the match was played

Major League Soccer

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Cincinnati

New York City

6

Shots on target

8

3

Big chances

3

2

Corners

5

3

Yellow cards

3

57%

Possession

44%

The match between Cincinnati and New York City ended 2-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Cincinnati win with 51% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Cincinnati – Columbus Crew prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Cincinnati vs New York City — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Major League Soccer

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cincinnati to win

Correct
Our model 51%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 62%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 63%Bookmakers 65%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 59%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 937 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.1% of the time (bookmakers said 60.1%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cincinnati ahead at half-time

Wrong
Our model 42%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Cincinnati Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cincinnati 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 55%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 2,827 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

New York City Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

New York City 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 66%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 3,280 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Cincinnati vs New York City 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Cincinnati vs New York City. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Major League Soccer - USA
CincinnatiCincinnati2
New York CityNew York City1

Winner

1 51%

BTTS*

Yes 62%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 63%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 51%

Full Time

151%
X23%
226%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT17%83%37%63%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT49%51%75%25%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Cincinnati18%82%45%55%
New York City36%64%66%34%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Cincinnati71%29%88%12%
New York City87%13%96%4%

1st Half

142%
X37%
221%

1st Score

159%
X4%
237%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

32%

X-1

15%

2-2

14%

X-X

13%

X-2

9%

1-X

7%

2-1

4%

2-X

4%

1-2

3%

Correct Score

1-1

10.2%

2-1

9.3%

1-0

7.6%

2-0

7.0%

1-2

6.7%

2-2

6.5%

3-1

6.1%

0-1

5.1%

3-0

4.5%

0-0

4.3%

3-2

4.0%

0-2

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Cincinnati – Columbus Crew prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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