Banker as favourites
8/10Philadelphia Union won 8 of 10 as favourites (league 50%).
Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Major League Soccer - Season 2026
Riding their luck
Philadelphia Union are taking more points than their chances usually bring
+5points more than their chances usually bring in their last 10
85% of teams this far ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Philadelphia Union 41% to winChicago Fire 36%
Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union score prediction
Major League Soccer
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
3.4 goals in total, a little over the Major League Soccer average of 3.2.
goals expected
Chicago Fire1.8Philadelphia Union1.6Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Major League Soccer
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Chicago Fire to win
Our model 40%Bookmakers 36%
Our track record
In 1,027 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.3% than to our 40–45%.
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 67%Bookmakers 70%
Our track record
In 398 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 65.1%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 67%Bookmakers 68%
Our track record
In 1,117 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 67.7% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 55%Bookmakers 52%
Our track record
In 901 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.3% of the time (bookmakers said 60.1%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 37%Bookmakers 36%
Our track record
In 1,986 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.4% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).
Chicago Fire Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Chicago Fire 0–1 goals
Our model 51%Bookmakers 49%
Our track record
In 1,823 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.8% than to our 50–55%.
Philadelphia Union Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Philadelphia Union 0–1 goals
Our model 55%Bookmakers 44%
Our track record
In 826 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.6% than to our 50–55%.
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Chicago Fire–
Philadelphia Union–Winner
1X 64%
BTTS*
Yes 67%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 67%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 55%
Chicago Fire–Philadelphia Union–Winner
1X 64%
BTTS*
Yes 67%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 67%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 55%
Full Time
140%
X24%
236%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 14% | 86% | 33% | 67% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 45% | 55% | 72% | 28% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23% | 77% | 51% | 49% |
| 27% | 73% | 55% | 45% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76% | 24% | 90% | 10% |
| 79% | 21% | 92% | 8% |
1st Half
136%
X37%
227%
1st Score
151%
X3%
245%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
25%
2-2
19%
X-1
15%
X-X
12%
X-2
10%
1-X
6%
2-X
5%
1-2
4%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
9.8%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
8.0%
2-2
7.3%
1-0
5.6%
0-1
5.2%
2-0
4.9%
3-1
4.6%
0-2
4.5%
1-3
4.2%
2-3
4.0%
3-2
3.9%
0-0
3.5%
3-0
3.0%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union: the stats that stand out
Major League Soccer
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Philadelphia Union: banker as favourites and always on the scoresheet · Chicago Fire: fast starters
8/10Always on the scoresheet
0/10Philadelphia Union scored in all of their last 10 (league 21% fail to score).
Fast starters
7/10Chicago Fire scored first in 7 of their last 10 (league 48%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union: attack vs defence
Major League Soccer
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Major League Soccer teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Chicago Fire: good attack, good defence (1.57 xG, 1.30 xGA a game)
- Philadelphia Union: good attack, good defence (2.11 xG, 1.13 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union form and luck check
Major League Soccer
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Major League Soccer gamesPhiladelphia Union are taking more points than their chances usually bring
- Chicago FireBookmakers: 36% to win today.+0.5
- Philadelphia UnionBookmakers: 41% to win today.Clinical · +8 goals+5.0
Last 5 matches
Philadelphia UnionW
W
W
W
W
Chicago FireW
W
W
L
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Chicago Fire 6th of 30 · Philadelphia Union 2nd of 30
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 30 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Major League Soccer
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Major League Soccer gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Chicago Fire and Philadelphia Union games more often than the Major League Soccer average (63%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 64%
Chicago Fire7 of 10
Philadelphia Union8 of 10
BTTSleague 63%
Chicago Fire8 of 10
Philadelphia Union7 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 455 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union corners, cards and goal times
Major League Soccer
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameGoal times close to the Major League Soccer average
Chicago Fire
Philadelphia Union
4.0
Corners won · league 5.0
6.1
4.2
Corners conceded · league 5.0
4.4
1.7
Cards · league 2.1
2.7
2.1
Opponents' cards · league 2.1
2.7
47%
Goals before half-time · league 46%
25%
12%
Goals after 75' · league 24%
16%
31%
Conceded before half-time · league 46%
69%
31%
Conceded after 75' · league 24%
15%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Chicago Fire3/5
Philadelphia Union4/5
Both Teams to Score
Chicago Fire3/5
Philadelphia Union2/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Chicago Fire4/5
Philadelphia Union4/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Chicago Fire4/5
Philadelphia Union1/5
First Half Result
Chicago Fire1/5
Philadelphia Union2/5
Correct Score
Chicago Fire0/5
Philadelphia Union0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction