Újpest vs Várda SE 2-1 Score & Prediction Review
NB I. - Season 2025/2026 (Round 26)
Újpest2–1
Várda SEOn these chances Újpest would usually take 2.1 points and Várda SE 0.7; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Újpest.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Újpest vs Várda SE stats: how the match was played
NB I.
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Újpest had clearly more shots on target
Újpest
Várda SE
5
Shots on target
3
1
Big chances
1
4
Corners
3
0
Yellow cards
2
43%
Possession
57%
Újpest vs Várda SE — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · NB I.
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Újpest to win
CorrectOur track record
In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.6% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 6,459 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 5,151 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 4,553 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
CorrectOur track record
In 6,656 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Our model’s pick
Újpest 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,799 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).
Our model’s pick
Várda SE 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,357 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Újpest vs Várda SE 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Újpest vs Várda SE. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Újpest2
Várda SE1Winner
1X 75%
BTTS*
Yes 52%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 50%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Újpest2Várda SE1Winner
1X 75%
BTTS*
Yes 52%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 50%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 26% | 74% | 50% | 50% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 63% | 37% | 85% | 15% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23% | 77% | 55% | 45% |
| 39% | 61% | 73% | 27% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 20% | 93% | 7% |
| 91% | 9% | 98% | 3% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
29%
X-1
16%
X-X
16%
2-2
14%
X-2
10%
1-X
6%
2-X
5%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.2%
1-0
11.2%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
8.4%
0-0
7.6%
0-1
7.4%
1-2
6.5%
2-2
5.4%
3-1
4.8%
3-0
4.3%
0-2
3.7%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score