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Al Ahly vs Smouha 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

Premier League - Season 2026/2027 (Round 3)

Fair result
Al AhlyAl Ahly

1–0

SmouhaSmouha
1.6Chances (xG)0.0

On these chances Al Ahly would usually take 2.6 points and Smouha 0.2; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Al Ahly.

Al Ahly +0.4 pts vs chancesSmouha −0.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Al Ahly vs Smouha stats: how the match was played

Premier League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Al Ahly had more than twice the shots on target

Al Ahly

Smouha

4

Shots on target

0

0

Big chances

0

9

Corners

1

2

Yellow cards

3

66%

Possession

34%

The match between Al Ahly and Smouha ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Al Ahly win with 67% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: El Gounah – Smouha prediction & betting tips (Oct 19, 2026).

Al Ahly vs Smouha — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premier League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Al Ahly to win

Correct
Our model 67%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 616 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 70.5% of the time (bookmakers said 70.8%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct
Our model 59%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 55%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 5,191 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 77%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Al Ahly ahead at half-time

Wrong
Our model 47%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Al Ahly Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Al Ahly 2+ goals

Wrong
Our model 55%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 2,827 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

Smouha Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Smouha 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 88%Bookmakers 88%

Our track record

In 600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 85.2% of the time (bookmakers said 85.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Al Ahly vs Smouha 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Al Ahly vs Smouha. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Premier League - Egypt
Al AhlyAl Ahly1
SmouhaSmouha0

Winner

1 67%

BTTS*

No 59%

Correct Score

1-0 16%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 67%

Full Time

167%
X22%
211%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT29%71%55%45%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT67%33%86%14%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Al Ahly15%85%46%55%
Smouha57%43%88%12%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Al Ahly73%27%89%11%
Smouha98%2%100%0%

1st Half

146%
X41%
212%

1st Score

167%
X8%
225%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

41%

X-1

22%

X-X

15%

2-2

6%

X-2

4%

2-X

4%

1-X

3%

2-1

3%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-0

16.4%

2-0

13.7%

1-1

10.3%

2-1

10.2%

3-0

8.3%

0-0

8.1%

3-1

5.5%

0-1

4.8%

1-2

3.1%

2-2

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: El Gounah – Smouha prediction & betting tips (Oct 19, 2026).

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