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Chelsea vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Chelsea vs Brighton & Hove Albion 4-3 Score & Prediction Review

Premier League - Season 2026/2027 (Round 2)

Fair result

Chelsea

4–3

Brighton & Hove Albion

2.0Chances (xG)1.9

On these chances Chelsea would usually take 1.4 points and Brighton & Hove Albion 1.4; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Chelsea.

Chelsea +1.6 pts vs chancesBrighton & Hove Albion −1.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Chelsea vs Brighton & Hove Albion stats: how the match was played

Premier League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Chelsea

Brighton & Hove Albion

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

26%

Possession

74%

The match between Chelsea and Brighton & Hove Albion ended 4-3. Our AI model correctly predicted a Chelsea win with 43% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Brighton & Hove Albion – Crystal Palace prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Chelsea vs Brighton & Hove Albion — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premier League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Chelsea to win

Correct

Our model 44%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 3,626 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.0% of the time (bookmakers said 46.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 59%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 58%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 65%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Chelsea ahead at half-time

Correct

Our model 38%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 2,043 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.3% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

Chelsea Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Chelsea 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Chelsea 2+ goals.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 1,869 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

Brighton & Hove Albion Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Brighton & Hove Albion 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 63%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 2,695 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.1% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Chelsea vs Brighton & Hove Albion 4-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Chelsea vs Brighton & Hove Albion. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Premier League - England

Chelsea4

Brighton & Hove Albion3

Winner

1X 67%

BTTS*

Yes 59%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 55%

· FT

Premier League - England

Chelsea4

Brighton & Hove Albion3

Winner

1X 67%

BTTS*

Yes 59%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 55%

Full Time

143%

X23%

233%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	20%	80%	42%	58%	55%	45%	79%	21%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	20%	80%	42%	58%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	55%	45%	79%	21%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	24%	76%	54%	46%	79%	21%	92%	8%
	31%	69%	63%	37%	85%	15%	95%	5%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	24%	76%	54%	46%
	31%	69%	63%	37%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	79%	21%	92%	8%
	85%	15%	95%	5%

1st Half

138%

X38%

224%

1st Score

156%

X5%

239%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

30%

X-1

16%

2-2

16%

X-X

13%

X-2

10%

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

10.7%

2-1

9.2%

1-0

8.2%

1-2

7.7%

0-1

6.8%

2-0

6.4%

2-2

6.0%

0-0

5.1%

0-2

4.8%

3-1

4.8%

1-3

3.6%

3-0

3.5%

3-2

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Brighton & Hove Albion – Crystal Palace prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).