Arsenal vs Leeds United Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Premier League - Season 2026/2027 (Round 6)
Arsenal vs Leeds United — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Premier League
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Arsenal to win
Our track record
In 557 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.7%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
Our track record
In 5,151 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.6% of the time (bookmakers said 57.6%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our track record
In 4,908 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our track record
In 4,381 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.7%).
Our model’s pick
Arsenal ahead at half-time
Our track record
In 3,866 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.2% of the time (bookmakers said 47.4%).
Our model’s pick
Arsenal 2+ goals
Our track record
In 3,090 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).
Our model’s pick
Leeds United 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 577 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 84.4% of the time (bookmakers said 85.2%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Arsenal vs Leeds United — AI Betting Odds & Market Probabilities
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Arsenal vs Leeds United. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Arsenal–
Leeds United–Winner
1 68%
BTTS**
No 55%
Correct Score
1-0 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 62%
Arsenal–Leeds United–Winner
1 68%
BTTS**
No 55%
Correct Score
1-0 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 62%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 25% | 75% | 49% | 51% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 62% | 38% | 82% | 18% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 14% | 86% | 41% | 59% |
 | 56% | 44% | 86% | 14% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69% | 31% | 86% | 14% |
| 97% | 3% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
44%
X-1
19%
X-X
11%
2-2
7%
X-2
5%
2-X
5%
1-X
4%
2-1
4%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
1-0
14.0%
2-0
13.0%
2-1
10.3%
1-1
9.1%
3-0
8.4%
0-0
7.1%
3-1
5.8%
0-1
4.4%
2-2
3.7%
1-2
3.4%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Arsenal vs Leeds United — Recent Form
Arsenal have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 2nd in the table. Leeds United have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 5th in the table.
Last 5 matches
ArsenalLeeds UnitedOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
ArsenalLeeds UnitedBoth Teams to Score
ArsenalLeeds UnitedOver/Under 2.5 Goals
ArsenalLeeds UnitedOver/Under 3.5 Goals
ArsenalLeeds UnitedFirst Half Result
ArsenalLeeds UnitedCorrect Score
ArsenalLeeds United